Detecting AI Coding Agents in Open Source: A Validated Multi-Method Census of 180 Million Repositories

Generative AI coding agents are entering the open-source supply chain, yet their diverse and often invisible traces leave their prevalence poorly understood. We introduce a multi-layered detection framework that integrates configuration-file scanning, commit-message analysis, author-identity matching, and bot-signature lookup across World of Code (180M+ Git repositories), classifying agent traces into four behavioral types. No single method captures more than a fraction of activity: multi-method detection identifies 850,157 Claude Code commits in one snapshot, of which bot-account lookup_the signal most adoption studies rely on_recovers only 28,154 (3.3%), a 30x relative-recall gap, so single-signal prevalence estimates are biased low by at least this factor. Every detection pattern is hand-validated (495 labels) with per-cell precision and Wilson confidence intervals. Across snapshots from December 2024 to April 2026, commit-attributed agents generate over 320,000 commits per month; Claude Code leads (886,122 commits across 17,295 projects) and dominates silent, configuration-file-only adoption (21,078 projects). Compared against an independent pull-request census (AIDev), the two channels capture nearly disjoint agent populations_a PR census misses 79% of commit-detected Claude Code adopters and essentially all Codex adopters_and different kinds of work: PR-deployed cloud agents (Codex, Cursor) surface as feature work, while commit-deployed in-editor agents (Claude Code, OpenHands, Aider) surface as maintenance. The observed work profile follows deployment and detection mode rather than the tool itself, so no single channel is representative.

LIA: Supervised Fine-Tuning of Large Language Models for Automatic Issue Assignment

Issue assignment is a critical process in software maintenance, where new issue reports are validated and assigned to suitable developers. However, manual issue assignment is often inconsistent and error-prone, especially in large open-source projects where thousands of new issues are reported monthly. Existing automated approaches have shown promise, but many rely heavily on large volumes of project-specific training data or relational information that is often sparse and noisy, which limits their effectiveness. To address these challenges, we propose LIA (LLM-based Issue Assignment), which employs supervised fine-tuning to adapt an LLM, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B in this work, for automatic issue assignment. By leveraging the LLM's pretrained semantic understanding of natural language and software-related text, LIA learns to generate ranked developer recommendations directly from issue titles and descriptions. The ranking is based on the model's learned understanding of historical issue-to-developer assignments, using patterns from past tasks to infer which developers are most likely to handle new issues. Through comprehensive evaluation, we show that LIA delivers substantial improvements over both its base pretrained model and state-of-the-art baselines. It achieves up to +187.8% higher Hit@1 compared to the DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B pretrained base model, and outperforms four leading issue assignment methods by as much as +211.2% in Hit@1 score. These results highlight the effectiveness of domain-adapted LLMs for software maintenance tasks and establish LIA as a practical, high-performing solution for issue assignment.