GPT-4 Understands Discourse at Least as Well as Humans Do

We test whether a leading AI system GPT-4 understands discourse as well as humans do, using a standardized test of discourse comprehension. Participants are presented with brief stories and then answer eight yes/no questions probing their comprehension of the story. The questions are formatted to assess the separate impacts of directness (stated vs. implied) and salience (main idea vs. details). GPT-4 performs slightly, but not statistically significantly, better than humans given the very high level of human performance. Both GPT-4 and humans exhibit a strong ability to make inferences about information that is not explicitly stated in a story, a critical test of understanding.

The Causal Frame Problem: An Algorithmic Perspective

The Frame Problem (FP) is a puzzle in philosophy of mind and epistemology, articulated by the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy as follows: "How do we account for our apparent ability to make decisions on the basis only of what is relevant to an ongoing situation without having explicitly to consider all that is not relevant?" In this work, we focus on the causal variant of the FP, the Causal Frame Problem (CFP). Assuming that a reasoner's mental causal model can be (implicitly) represented by a causal Bayes net, we first introduce a notion called Potential Level (PL). PL, in essence, encodes the relative position of a node with respect to its neighbors in a causal Bayes net. Drawing on the psychological literature on causal judgment, we substantiate the claim that PL may bear on how time is encoded in the mind. Using PL, we propose an inference framework, called the PL-based Inference Framework (PLIF), which permits a boundedly-rational approach to the CFP to be formally articulated at Marr's algorithmic level of analysis. We show that our proposed framework, PLIF, is consistent with a wide range of findings in causal judgment literature, and that PL and PLIF make a number of predictions, some of which are already supported by existing findings.

Converting Cascade-Correlation Neural Nets into Probabilistic Generative Models

Humans are not only adept in recognizing what class an input instance belongs to (i.e., classification task), but perhaps more remarkably, they can imagine (i.e., generate) plausible instances of a desired class with ease, when prompted. Inspired by this, we propose a framework which allows transforming Cascade-Correlation Neural Networks (CCNNs) into probabilistic generative models, thereby enabling CCNNs to generate samples from a category of interest. CCNNs are a well-known class of deterministic, discriminative NNs, which autonomously construct their topology, and have been successful in giving accounts for a variety of psychological phenomena. Our proposed framework is based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm, which capitalizes on the gradient information of the target distribution to direct its explorations towards regions of high probability, thereby achieving good mixing properties. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed framework.

Probabilistic Structural Controllability in Causal Bayesian Networks

Humans routinely confront the following key question which could be viewed as a probabilistic variant of the controllability problem: While faced with an uncertain environment governed by causal structures, how should they practice their autonomy by intervening on driver variables, in order to increase (or decrease) the probability of attaining their desired (or undesired) state for some target variable? In this paper, for the first time, the problem of probabilistic controllability in Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) is studied. More specifically, the aim of this paper is two-fold: (i) to introduce and formalize the problem of probabilistic structural controllability in CBNs, and (ii) to identify a sufficient set of driver variables for the purpose of probabilistic structural controllability of a generic CBN. We also elaborate on the nature of minimality the identified set of driver variables satisfies. In this context, the term "structural" signifies the condition wherein solely the structure of the CBN is known.

Multi-Context Models for Reasoning under Partial Knowledge: Generative Process and Inference Grammar

Arriving at the complete probabilistic knowledge of a domain, i.e., learning how all variables interact, is indeed a demanding task. In reality, settings often arise for which an individual merely possesses partial knowledge of the domain, and yet, is expected to give adequate answers to a variety of posed queries. That is, although precise answers to some queries, in principle, cannot be achieved, a range of plausible answers is attainable for each query given the available partial knowledge. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Context Model (MCM), a new graphical model to represent the state of partial knowledge as to a domain. MCM is a middle ground between Probabilistic Logic, Bayesian Logic, and Probabilistic Graphical Models. For this model we discuss: (i) the dynamics of constructing a contradiction-free MCM, i.e., to form partial beliefs regarding a domain in a gradual and probabilistically consistent way, and (ii) how to perform inference, i.e., to evaluate a probability of interest involving some variables of the domain.