NumLeak: Public Numeric Benchmarks as Latent Labels in Foundation Models

Public numeric benchmarks appear in pretraining, so an evaluation that conditions on a date may be measuring memorized recall rather than out-of-sample skill. We introduce NumLeak, a measurement framework that combines API-boundary probes on production models with a white-box controlled validation on an open causal LM. Top-tier frontier LLMs recall the Fama-French market excess return at 3-seed pooled Pearson r=0.97-0.99 while staying within 0.15 within-25bps on the five sibling factors; comparable fidelity appears on U.S. unemployment, CPI inflation, and NOAA temperature. On a recent-release holdout, parse rate collapses to 21-57% but r stays at approximately 0.99 on months answered, the refuse-or-recall asymmetry a memorized channel predicts. The white-box experiment reproduces the dose-response, and logprob ranking detects memorization that open-ended generation misses, implying closed-API black-box probes understate the channel. A Sonnet "date to market-sentiment" regression that correlates with true Mkt-RF at r=0.74 collapses to r=0.02 once the model's own recall is residualized out. A one-line system-prompt defense blocks 99.8% of a non-adaptive single-turn suffix attack set at near-zero utility cost on conceptual and historical-narrative queries

Locally Coherent, Globally Incoherent: Bounding Compositional Incoherence in Multi-Component LLM Agents

Multi-component LLM agents assemble probabilistic claims from components that each see only part of a joint problem; the composition can violate basic probability axioms even when every component is locally coherent. We formalise this locally coherent, globally incoherent failure via the compositional residual eps*, the L2 distance from the composed quote to the joint coherent polytope, computable at runtime from system output and the declared cross-component coupling constraints. A product-structure dichotomy characterises when local coherence suffices, and a Rayleigh-quotient prediction matches the observed residual within 7% on three of four relation classes. A hierarchical Boyle-Dykstra projection repairs the composition deterministically; an anytime-valid e-process gives sequential coherence monitoring. Across 1,876 ensemble cliques on a four-LLM mid-tier panel (frontier-panel rerun in Section 5.5), eps* > 0 on 33-94% of cliques, translating to +0.115 nats per bet of regret on 1,770 resolved bets under the proportional allocation rule (the gain collapses to +0.006 under bettors that themselves coherentise). Three intuitive LLM-side mitigations(retrieval, partition-aware prompting, aggregator-LLM) each fail or regress.

Resolution Diagnostics for Paired LLM Evaluation

Across two public LLM leaderboards, many displayed pairwise rankings do not meet a conventional paired-test resolution target under the actual paired evaluation design: 11 of 40 Open LLM Leaderboard v1 pairwise comparisons and 4 of 9 MMLU-Pro top-10 adjacent-rank pairs are unresolved at (alpha, 1-beta) = (0.05, 0.8). The MMLU-Pro count rises to 6/9 under real subject-level clustering and stays at 5-6 out of 9 in 99.9% of category-bootstrap resamples. We frame paired LLM evaluation as a hypothesis-testing problem, invert level-alpha, power-(1-beta) tests, and report a per-pair resolution ratio q = N/N* as the primary diagnostic. A sharp small-effect expansion with an explicit second-order constant shows that the widely-used unpaired Cohen-h-plus-(1-rho) shortcut deviates from the correct N* by approximately a factor of two in the close-comparison regime, a deficit that three of five off-the-shelf calculators(Cohen 1988, G*Power, R pwr) silently inherit when the user post-multiplies their per-arm output by (1-rho). The unresolved-pair pattern remains under multiplicity correction and anytime-valid sequential testing.

GENSTRAT: Toward a Science of Strategic Reasoning in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as economic agents in marketplaces, auctions, and bidding settings. Anticipating their behavior in any specific deployment is hard. Existing strategic-reasoning benchmarks evaluate models on fixed canonical games. These benchmarks may saturate as the frontier improves, and they do not allow evaluators to generalize with confidence from benchmark performance to the varied and messy strategic environments that actual deployments involve. We introduce GENSTRAT, which uses procedurally generated strategic environments to address these challenges. Concretely, we generate a distribution of two-player zero-sum imperfect-information card games. The generator can draw fresh games on demand, allowing for evergreen evaluation and resistance to contamination. We pair the game distribution with a capability-profile methodology that decomposes model competence across six axes (state space, temporal depth, information sensitivity, opponent modeling, risk, and brittleness). We also introduce a jaggedness measure of within-distribution smoothness that detects when a model's advantage jumps unpredictably between strategically similar games. We sample 50 benchmark games from a 2,000-game generated pool and evaluate nine frontier and open-weight LLMs in a head-to-head tournament with over 36,000 matches. Newer frontier-tier models score higher on average. Beyond that average, models with near-identical overall strength show qualitatively different capability profiles, and two of the top three leaderboard models (gpt-5 and claude) are noticeably more locally volatile than the third (gemini-3.1-pro), despite being close in overall strength. Together, the capability profile and the jaggedness measure give a deployment-relevant diagnostic that the overall ranking alone cannot provide.