Wind speed prediction using a hybrid model of the multi-layer perceptron and whale optimization algorithm

Wind power as a renewable source of energy, has numerous economic, environmental and social benefits. In order to enhance and control renewable wind power, it is vital to utilize models that predict wind speed with high accuracy. Due to neglecting of requirement and significance of data preprocessing and disregarding the inadequacy of using a single predicting model, many traditional models have poor performance in wind speed prediction. In the current study, for predicting wind speed at target stations in the north of Iran, the combination of a multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) with the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) used to build new method (MLP-WOA) with a limited set of data (2004-2014). Then, the MLP-WOA model was utilized at each of the ten target stations, with the nine stations for training and tenth station for testing (namely: Astara, Bandar-E-Anzali, Rasht, Manjil, Jirandeh, Talesh, Kiyashahr, Lahijan, Masuleh, and Deylaman) to increase the accuracy of the subsequent hybrid model. The capability of the hybrid model in wind speed forecasting at each target station was compared with the MLP model without the WOA optimizer. To determine definite results, numerous statistical performances were utilized. For all ten target stations, the MLP-WOA model had precise outcomes than the standalone MLP model. The hybrid model had acceptable performances with lower amounts of the RMSE, SI and RE parameters and higher values of NSE, WI, and KGE parameters. It was concluded that the WOA optimization algorithm can improve the prediction accuracy of MLP model and may be recommended for accurate wind speed prediction.

Evaluation of electrical efficiency of photovoltaic thermal solar collector

Solar energy is a renewable resource of energy that is broadly utilized and has the least emissions among renewable energies. In this study, machine learning methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), least squares support vector machines (LSSVM), and neuro-fuzzy are used for advancing prediction models for the thermal performance of a photovoltaic-thermal solar collector (PV/T). In the proposed models, the inlet temperature, flow rate, heat, solar radiation, and the sun heat have been considered as the inputs variables. Data set has been extracted through experimental measurements from a novel solar collector system. Different analyses are performed to examine the credibility of the introduced approaches and evaluate their performance. The proposed LSSVM model outperformed ANFIS and ANNs models. LSSVM model is reported suitable when the laboratory measurements are costly and time-consuming, or achieving such values requires sophisticated interpretations.

Intelligent Road Inspection with Advanced Machine Learning; Hybrid Prediction Models for Smart Mobility and Transportation Maintenance Systems

Prediction models in mobility and transportation maintenance systems have been dramatically improved through using machine learning methods. This paper proposes novel machine learning models for intelligent road inspection. The traditional road inspection systems based on the pavement condition index (PCI) are often associated with the critical safety, energy and cost issues. Alternatively, the proposed models utilize surface deflection data from falling weight deflectometer (FWD) tests to predict the PCI. Machine learning methods are the single multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks as well as their hybrids, i.e., Levenberg-Marquardt (MLP-LM), scaled conjugate gradient (MLP-SCG), imperialist competitive (RBF-ICA), and genetic algorithms (RBF-GA). Furthermore, the committee machine intelligent systems (CMIS) method was adopted to combine the results and improve the accuracy of the modeling. The results of the analysis have been verified through using four criteria of average percent relative error (APRE), average absolute percent relative error (AAPRE), root mean square error (RMSE), and standard error (SD). The CMIS model outperforms other models with the promising results of APRE=2.3303, AAPRE=11.6768, RMSE=12.0056, and SD=0.0210.

Coronary Artery Disease Diagnosis; Ranking the Significant Features Using Random Trees Model

Heart disease is one of the most common diseases in middle-aged citizens. Among the vast number of heart diseases, the coronary artery disease (CAD) is considered as a common cardiovascular disease with a high death rate. The most popular tool for diagnosing CAD is the use of medical imaging, e.g., angiography. However, angiography is known for being costly and also associated with a number of side effects. Hence, the purpose of this study is to increase the accuracy of coronary heart disease diagnosis through selecting significant predictive features in order of their ranking. In this study, we propose an integrated method using machine learning. The machine learning methods of random trees (RTs), decision tree of C5.0, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree of Chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) are used in this study. The proposed method shows promising results and the study confirms that RTs model outperforms other models.

Prediction of Discharge Capacity of Labyrinth Weir with Gene Expression Programming

This paper proposes a model based on gene expression programming for predicting the discharge coefficient of triangular labyrinth weirs. The parameters influencing discharge coefficient prediction were first examined and presented as crest height ratio to the head over the crest of the weir, a crest length of water to channel width, a crest length of water to the head over the crest of the weir, Froude number and vertex angle dimensionless parameters. Different models were then presented using sensitivity analysis in order to examine each of the dimensionless parameters presented in this study. In addition, an equation was presented through the use of nonlinear regression (NLR) for the purpose of comparison with GEP. The results of the studies conducted by using different statistical indexes indicated that GEP is more capable than NLR. This is to the extent that GEP predicts the discharge coefficient with an average relative error of approximately 2.5% in such a manner that the predicted values have less than 5% relative error in the worst model.

A Bayesian Monte-Carlo Uncertainty Model for Assessment of Shear Stress Entropy

The entropy models have been recently adopted in many studies to evaluate the distribution of the shear stress in circular channels. However, the uncertainty in their predictions and their reliability remains an open question. We present a novel method to evaluate the uncertainty of four popular entropy models, including Shannon, Shannon-Power Low (PL), Tsallis, and Renyi, in shear stress estimation in circular channels. The Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) uncertainty method is simplified considering a 95% Confidence Bound (CB). We developed a new statistic index called as FREEopt-based OCB (FOCB) using the statistical indices Forecasting Range of Error Estimation (FREE) and the percentage of observed data in the CB (Nin), which integrates their combined effect. The Shannon and Shannon PL entropies had close values of the FOCB equal to 8.781 and 9.808, respectively, had the highest certainty in the calculation of shear stress values in circular channels followed by traditional uniform flow shear stress and Tsallis models with close values of 14.491 and 14.895, respectively. However, Renyi entropy with much higher values of FOCB equal to 57.726 has less certainty in the estimation of shear stress than other models. Using the presented results in this study, the amount of confidence in entropy methods in the calculation of shear stress to design and implement different types of open channels and their stability is determined.

Prediction of flow characteristics in the bubble column reactor by the artificial pheromone-based communication of biological ants

In order to perceive the behavior presented by the multiphase chemical reactors, the ant colony optimization algorithm was combined with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. This intelligent algorithm creates a probabilistic technique for computing flow and it can predict various levels of three-dimensional bubble column reactor (BCR). This artificial ant algorithm is mimicking real ant behavior. This method can anticipate the flow characteristics in the reactor using almost 30 % of the whole data in the domain. Following discovering the suitable parameters, the method is used for predicting the points not being simulated with CFD, which represent mesh refinement of Ant colony method. In addition, it is possible to anticipate the bubble-column reactors in the absence of numerical results or training of exact values of evaluated data. The major benefits include reduced computational costs and time savings. The results show a great agreement between ant colony prediction and CFD outputs in different sections of the BCR. The combination of ant colony system and neural network framework can provide the smart structure to estimate biological and nature physics base phenomena. The ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO) framework based on ant behavior can solve all local mathematical answers throughout 3D bubble column reactor. The integration of all local answers can provide the overall solution in the reactor for different characteristics. This new overview of modelling can illustrate new sight into biological behavior in nature.

Modeling Climate Change Impact on Wind Power Resources Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable development and management of the energy. In this study, spatial variation of wind power density at the turbine hub-height and its variability under future climatic scenarios are taken under consideration. An ANFIS based post-processing technique was employed to match the power outputs of the regional climate model with those obtained from the reference data. The near-surface wind data obtained from a regional climate model are employed to investigate climate change impacts on the wind power resources in the Caspian Sea. Subsequent to converting near-surface wind speed to turbine hub-height speed and computation of wind power density, the results have been investigated to reveal mean annual power, seasonal, and monthly variability for a 20-year period in the present (1981-2000) and in the future (2081-2100). The findings of this study indicated that the middle and northern parts of the Caspian Sea are placed with the highest values of wind power. However, the results of the post-processing technique using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model showed that the real potential of the wind power in the area is lower than those of projected from the regional climate model.

Simulation of Turbulent Flow around a Generic High-Speed Train using Hybrid Models of RANS Numerical Method with Machine Learning

In the present paper, an aerodynamic investigation of a high-speed train is performed. In the first section of this article, a generic high-speed train against a turbulent flow is simulated, numerically. The Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations combined with the turbulence model are applied to solve incompressible turbulent flow around a high-speed train. Flow structure, velocity and pressure contours and streamlines at some typical wind directions are the most important results of this simulation. The maximum and minimum values are specified and discussed. Also, the pressure coefficient for some critical points on the train surface is evaluated. In the following, the wind direction influence the aerodynamic key parameters as drag, lift, and side forces at the mentioned wind directions are analyzed and compared. Moreover, the effects of velocity changes (50, 60, 70, 80 and 90 m/s) are estimated and compared on the above flow and aerodynamic parameters. In the second section of the paper, various data-driven methods including Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and random forest (RF), are applied for predicting output parameters. So, drag, lift, and side forces and also minimum and a maximum of pressure coefficients for mentioned wind directions and velocity are predicted and compared using statistical parameters. Obtained results indicated that RF in all coefficients of wind direction and most coefficients of free stream velocity provided the most accurate predictions. As a conclusion, RF may be recommended for the prediction of aerodynamic coefficients.

Shear Stress Distribution Prediction in Symmetric Compound Channels Using Data Mining and Machine Learning Models

Shear stress distribution prediction in open channels is of utmost importance in hydraulic structural engineering as it directly affects the design of stable channels. In this study, at first, a series of experimental tests were conducted to assess the shear stress distribution in prismatic compound channels. The shear stress values around the whole wetted perimeter were measured in the compound channel with different floodplain widths also in different flow depths in subcritical and supercritical conditions. A set of, data mining and machine learning models including Random Forest (RF), M5P, Random Committee (RC), KStar and Additive Regression Model (AR) implemented on attained data to predict the shear stress distribution in the compound channel. Results indicated among these five models, RF method indicated the most precise results with the highest R2 value of 0.9. Finally, the most powerful data mining method which studied in this research (RF) compared with two well-known analytical models of Shiono and Knight Method (SKM) and Shannon method to acquire the proposed model functioning in predicting the shear stress distribution. The results showed that the RF model has the best prediction performance compared to SKM and Shannon models.