Know When to Abstain: Optimal Selective Classification with Likelihood Ratios

Selective classification enhances the reliability of predictive models by allowing them to abstain from making uncertain predictions. In this work, we revisit the design of optimal selection functions through the lens of the Neyman--Pearson lemma, a classical result in statistics that characterizes the optimal rejection rule as a likelihood ratio test. We show that this perspective not only unifies the behavior of several post-hoc selection baselines, but also motivates new approaches to selective classification which we propose here. A central focus of our work is the setting of covariate shift, where the input distribution at test time differs from that at training. This realistic and challenging scenario remains relatively underexplored in the context of selective classification. We evaluate our proposed methods across a range of vision and language tasks, including both supervised learning and vision-language models. Our experiments demonstrate that our Neyman--Pearson-informed methods consistently outperform existing baselines, indicating that likelihood ratio-based selection offers a robust mechanism for improving selective classification under covariate shifts. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/clear-nus/sc-likelihood-ratios.

Out-of-Distribution Detection with a Single Unconditional Diffusion Model

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a critical task in machine learning that seeks to identify abnormal samples. Traditionally, unsupervised methods utilize a deep generative model for OOD detection. However, such approaches necessitate a different model when evaluating abnormality against a new distribution. With the emergence of foundational generative models, this paper explores whether a single generalist model can also perform OOD detection across diverse tasks. To that end, we introduce our method, Diffusion Paths, (DiffPath) in this work. DiffPath proposes to utilize a single diffusion model originally trained to perform unconditional generation for OOD detection. Specifically, we introduce a novel technique of measuring the rate-of-change and curvature of the diffusion paths connecting samples to the standard normal. Extensive experiments show that with a single model, DiffPath outperforms prior work on a variety of OOD tasks involving different distributions. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/clear-nus/diffpath.

Selective Amnesia: A Continual Learning Approach to Forgetting in Deep Generative Models

The recent proliferation of large-scale text-to-image models has led to growing concerns that such models may be misused to generate harmful, misleading, and inappropriate content. Motivated by this issue, we derive a technique inspired by continual learning to selectively forget concepts in pretrained deep generative models. Our method, dubbed Selective Amnesia, enables controllable forgetting where a user can specify how a concept should be forgotten. Selective Amnesia can be applied to conditional variational likelihood models, which encompass a variety of popular deep generative frameworks, including variational autoencoders and large-scale text-to-image diffusion models. Experiments across different models demonstrate that our approach induces forgetting on a variety of concepts, from entire classes in standard datasets to celebrity and nudity prompts in text-to-image models. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/clear-nus/selective-amnesia.

Generative Modeling with Flow-Guided Density Ratio Learning

We present Flow-Guided Density Ratio Learning (FDRL), a simple and scalable approach to generative modeling which builds on the stale (time-independent) approximation of the gradient flow of entropy-regularized f-divergences introduced in DGflow. In DGflow, the intractable time-dependent density ratio is approximated by a stale estimator given by a GAN discriminator. This is sufficient in the case of sample refinement, where the source and target distributions of the flow are close to each other. However, this assumption is invalid for generation and a naive application of the stale estimator fails due to the large chasm between the two distributions. FDRL proposes to train a density ratio estimator such that it learns from progressively improving samples during the training process. We show that this simple method alleviates the density chasm problem, allowing FDRL to generate images of dimensions as high as $128\times128$, as well as outperform existing gradient flow baselines on quantitative benchmarks. We also show the flexibility of FDRL with two use cases. First, unconditional FDRL can be easily composed with external classifiers to perform class-conditional generation. Second, FDRL can be directly applied to unpaired image-to-image translation with no modifications needed to the framework. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ajrheng/FDRL.

Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Models for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.