Outer-Momentum Restarting in High-Dimensional Two-Phase Optimization

Communication-efficient distributed optimizers such as DiLoCo reduce synchronization costs by letting workers perform many local updates before aggregating their progress with an outer momentum optimizer. Recent theory suggests that the outer optimizer acts on an effective spectrum induced by the inner optimization loop, and that the choice of outer momentum controls how progress from local updates is accumulated across communication rounds. We study periodic restarting of the outer momentum as a simple complementary mechanism for controlling this outer memory. In a linearized squared-loss model where prediction-space residuals evolve under the empirical NTK, we derive a mode-wise restart contraction showing that resets exploit phase cancellation by discarding stale momentum while preserving inner-loop progress. Toy experiments verify the predicted contraction behavior, and language-model pretraining experiments show that periodic restarts widen the stable range of outer learning rates and momentum values across communication periods.

Modeling Information Blackouts in Missing Not-At-Random Time Series Data

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.