Asymptotically Optimal Sequential Testing with Markovian Data

We study one-sided and $α$-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set $P$ of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set $Q$. We establish a tight non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as $α\to 0$. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.

Generalization Bounds for Dependent Data using Online-to-Batch Conversion

In this work, we give generalization bounds of statistical learning algorithms trained on samples drawn from a dependent data source, both in expectation and with high probability, using the Online-to-Batch conversion paradigm. We show that the generalization error of statistical learners in the dependent data setting is equivalent to the generalization error of statistical learners in the i.i.d. setting up to a term that depends on the decay rate of the underlying mixing stochastic process and is independent of the complexity of the statistical learner. Our proof techniques involve defining a new notion of stability of online learning algorithms based on Wasserstein distances and employing "near-martingale" concentration bounds for dependent random variables to arrive at appropriate upper bounds for the generalization error of statistical learners trained on dependent data.