Combining search strategies to improve performance in the calibration of economic ABMs

Calibrating agent-based models (ABMs) in economics and finance typically involves a derivative-free search in a very large parameter space. In this work, we benchmark a number of search methods in the calibration of a well-known macroeconomic ABM on real data, and further assess the performance of "mixed strategies" made by combining different methods. We find that methods based on random-forest surrogates are particularly efficient, and that combining search methods generally increases performance since the biases of any single method are mitigated. Moving from these observations, we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) scheme to automatically select and combine search methods on-the-fly during a calibration run. The RL agent keeps exploiting a specific method only as long as this keeps performing well, but explores new strategies when the specific method reaches a performance plateau. The resulting RL search scheme outperforms any other method or method combination tested, and does not rely on any prior information or trial and error procedure.

Intrinsic dimension estimation for discrete metrics

Real world-datasets characterized by discrete features are ubiquitous: from categorical surveys to clinical questionnaires, from unweighted networks to DNA sequences. Nevertheless, the most common unsupervised dimensional reduction methods are designed for continuous spaces, and their use for discrete spaces can lead to errors and biases. In this letter we introduce an algorithm to infer the intrinsic dimension (ID) of datasets embedded in discrete spaces. We demonstrate its accuracy on benchmark datasets, and we apply it to analyze a metagenomic dataset for species fingerprinting, finding a surprisingly small ID, of order 2. This suggests that evolutive pressure acts on a low-dimensional manifold despite the high-dimensionality of sequences' space.

Reconstruction and segmentation from sparse sequential X-ray measurements of wood logs

In industrial applications it is common to scan objects on a moving conveyor belt. If slice-wise 2D computed tomography (CT) measurements of the moving object are obtained we call it a sequential scanning geometry. In this case, each slice on its own does not carry sufficient information to reconstruct a useful tomographic image. Thus, here we propose the use of a Dimension reduced Kalman Filter to accumulate information between slices and allow for sufficiently accurate reconstructions for further assessment of the object. Additionally, we propose to use an unsupervised clustering approach known as Density Peak Advanced, to perform a segmentation and spot density anomalies in the internal structure of the reconstructed objects. We evaluate the method in a proof of concept study for the application of wood log scanning for the industrial sawing process, where the goal is to spot anomalies within the wood log to allow for optimal sawing patterns. Reconstruction and segmentation quality is evaluated from experimental measurement data for various scenarios of severely undersampled X-measurements. Results show clearly that an improvement of reconstruction quality can be obtained by employing the Dimension reduced Kalman Filter allowing to robustly obtain the segmented logs.

DADApy: Distance-based Analysis of DAta-manifolds in Python

DADApy is a python software package for analysing and characterising high-dimensional data manifolds. It provides methods for estimating the intrinsic dimension and the probability density, for performing density-based clustering and for comparing different distance metrics. We review the main functionalities of the package and exemplify its usage in toy cases and in a real-world application. The package is freely available under the open-source Apache 2.0 license and can be downloaded from the Github page https://github.com/sissa-data-science/DADApy.

Representation mitosis in wide neural networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) defy the classical bias-variance trade-off: adding parameters to a DNN that exactly interpolates its training data will typically improve its generalisation performance. Explaining the mechanism behind the benefit of such over-parameterisation is an outstanding challenge for deep learning theory. Here, we study the last layer representation of various deep architectures such as Wide-ResNets for image classification and find evidence for an underlying mechanism that we call *representation mitosis*: if the last hidden representation is wide enough, its neurons tend to split into groups which carry identical information, and differ from each other only by a statistically independent noise. Like in a mitosis process, the number of such groups, or ``clones'', increases linearly with the width of the layer, but only if the width is above a critical value. We show that a key ingredient to activate mitosis is continuing the training process until the training error is zero. Finally, we show that in one of the learning tasks we considered, a wide model with several automatically developed clones performs significantly better than a deep ensemble based on architectures in which the last layer has the same size as the clones.

Ranking the information content of distance measures

Real-world data typically contain a large number of features that are often heterogeneous in nature, relevance, and also units of measure. When assessing the similarity between data points, one can build various distance measures using subsets of these features. Using the fewest features but still retaining sufficient information about the system is crucial in many statistical learning approaches, particularly when data are sparse. We introduce a statistical test that can assess the relative information retained when using two different distance measures, and determine if they are equivalent, independent, or if one is more informative than the other. This in turn allows finding the most informative distance measure out of a pool of candidates. The approach is applied to find the most relevant policy variables for controlling the Covid-19 epidemic and to find compact yet informative representations of atomic structures, but its potential applications are wide ranging in many branches of science.

Hierarchical nucleation in deep neural networks

Deep convolutional networks (DCNs) learn meaningful representations where data that share the same abstract characteristics are positioned closer and closer. Understanding these representations and how they are generated is of unquestioned practical and theoretical interest. In this work we study the evolution of the probability density of the ImageNet dataset across the hidden layers in some state-of-the-art DCNs. We find that the initial layers generate a unimodal probability density getting rid of any structure irrelevant for classification. In subsequent layers density peaks arise in a hierarchical fashion that mirrors the semantic hierarchy of the concepts. Density peaks corresponding to single categories appear only close to the output and via a very sharp transition which resembles the nucleation process of a heterogeneous liquid. This process leaves a footprint in the probability density of the output layer where the topography of the peaks allows reconstructing the semantic relationships of the categories.

SPONGE: A generalized eigenproblem for clustering signed networks

We introduce a principled and theoretically sound spectral method for $k$-way clustering in signed graphs, where the affinity measure between nodes takes either positive or negative values. Our approach is motivated by social balance theory, where the task of clustering aims to decompose the network into disjoint groups, such that individuals within the same group are connected by as many positive edges as possible, while individuals from different groups are connected by as many negative edges as possible. Our algorithm relies on a generalized eigenproblem formulation inspired by recent work on constrained clustering. We provide theoretical guarantees for our approach in the setting of a signed stochastic block model, by leveraging tools from matrix perturbation theory and random matrix theory. An extensive set of numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data shows that our approach compares favorably with state-of-the-art methods for signed clustering, especially for large number of clusters and sparse measurement graphs.