Toward Decision-Oriented Prognostics: An Integrated Estimate-Optimize Framework for Predictive Maintenance

Recent research increasingly integrates machine learning (ML) into predictive maintenance (PdM) to reduce operational and maintenance costs in data-rich operational settings. However, uncertainty due to model misspecification continues to limit widespread industrial adoption. This paper proposes a PdM framework in which sensor-driven prognostics inform decision-making under economic trade-offs within a finite decision space. We investigate two key questions: (1) Does higher predictive accuracy necessarily lead to better maintenance decisions? (2) If not, how can the impact of prediction errors on downstream maintenance decisions be mitigated? We first demonstrate that in the traditional estimate-then-optimize (ETO) framework, errors in probabilistic prediction can result in inconsistent and suboptimal maintenance decisions. To address this, we propose an integrated estimate-optimize (IEO) framework that jointly tunes predictive models while directly optimizing for maintenance outcomes. We establish theoretical finite-sample guarantees on decision consistency under standard assumptions. Specifically, we develop a stochastic perturbation gradient descent algorithm suitable for small run-to-failure datasets. Empirical evaluations on a turbofan maintenance case study show that the IEO framework reduces average maintenance regret up to 22% compared to ETO. This study provides a principled approach to managing prediction errors in data-driven PdM. By aligning prognostic model training with maintenance objectives, the IEO framework improves robustness under model misspecification and improves decision quality. The improvement is particularly pronounced when the decision-making policy is misaligned with the decision-maker's target. These findings support more reliable maintenance planning in uncertain operational environments.

AI-Driven Risk-Aware Scheduling for Active Debris Removal Missions

The proliferation of debris in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represents a significant threat to space sustainability and spacecraft safety. Active Debris Removal (ADR) has emerged as a promising approach to address this issue, utilising Orbital Transfer Vehicles (OTVs) to facilitate debris deorbiting, thereby reducing future collision risks. However, ADR missions are substantially complex, necessitating accurate planning to make the missions economically viable and technically effective. Moreover, these servicing missions require a high level of autonomous capability to plan under evolving orbital conditions and changing mission requirements. In this paper, an autonomous decision-planning model based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is developed to train an OTV to plan optimal debris removal sequencing. It is shown that using the proposed framework, the agent can find optimal mission plans and learn to update the planning autonomously to include risk handling of debris with high collision risk.

On-orbit Servicing for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance With Autonomous Decision Making

This study develops an AI-based implementation of autonomous On-Orbit Servicing (OOS) mission to assist with spacecraft collision avoidance maneuvers (CAMs). We propose an autonomous `servicer' trained with Reinforcement Learning (RL) to autonomously detect potential collisions between a target satellite and space debris, rendezvous and dock with endangered satellites, and execute optimal CAM. The RL model integrates collision risk estimates, satellite specifications, and debris data to generate an optimal maneuver matrix for OOS rendezvous and collision prevention. We employ the Cross-Entropy algorithm to find optimal decision policies efficiently. Initial results demonstrate the feasibility of autonomous robotic OOS for collision avoidance services, focusing on one servicer spacecraft to one endangered satellite scenario. However, merging spacecraft rendezvous and optimal CAM presents significant complexities. We discuss design challenges and critical parameters for the successful implementation of the framework presented through a case study.