Abstract:Steganography in large language models offers a way to embed hidden messages within natural-sounding text. Existing token and logit-level methods typically require the sender and receiver to share an identical prompt context, which is rarely guaranteed in production pipelines that use retrieval-augmented generation or proprietary system instructions. We introduce Synchronized Logit Steering (SLS), a deterministic steganographic scheme that eliminates this dependency by deriving a proxy prompt from the generated output itself, allowing both parties to reconstruct the same logit distribution without access to the original prompt. SLS encodes payload values as token ranks within high-entropy regions of the proxy prompt distribution, and we extend the scheme with periodic recurrence and payload bursts to scale information density. Across ShareGPT, GSM8K, and SWE-bench Verified, we show that the KL divergence between the true and proxy prompt distributions falls below 0.5 nats once the synchronization window reaches 40 tokens, and SLS encoding does not meaningfully disrupt this convergence relative to greedy generation. We also find that the periodic-burst variant achieves 0.20 bits per token, or roughly 10x the capacity of single-payload encoding. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests further confirm that SLS outputs are statistically difficult to distinguish from greedy generations, demonstrating that covert, prompt-agnostic communication through LLMs is both practical and stealthy.
Abstract:Accurate option prices do not imply accurate recovery of the latent risk-neutral density. We study this distinction with two complementary benchmarks. A controlled benchmark exposes simulator-truth densities for latent evaluation, while a chronological NIFTY benchmark tests only held-out market prices. A two-component lognormal mixture has the lowest aggregate price, $L^1$, Wasserstein, and fixed-tail errors on the synthetic benchmark. Learned operators retain narrower strengths: DeepONet reduces 1% quantile and variance error by 39.0% and 34.6% relative to the mixture, and a quote transformer reduces $L^1$ by 16.4% on the structurally misspecified Merton family. A numerical conditioning analysis explains why these rankings can differ: after enforcing mass and forward constraints, 95 of 126 pricing directions are numerically null, and two densities separated by $L^1 = 0.061$ produce identical prices on the covered strikes. On 524 held-out NIFTY calls, validation-selected test-time adaptation reduces DeepONet RMSE by 28.3%, but per-expiry mixture and SVI fits remain much more accurate. The evidence supports target-dependent inductive bias, not a universal winner.