Predicting spatial distribution of Palmer Drought Severity Index

The probability of a drought for a particular region is crucial when making decisions related to agriculture. Forecasting this probability is critical for management and challenging at the same time. The prediction model should consider multiple factors with complex relationships across the region of interest and neighbouring regions. We approach this problem by presenting an end-to-end solution based on a spatio-temporal neural network. The model predicts the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for subregions of interest. Predictions by climate models provide an additional source of knowledge of the model leading to more accurate drought predictions. Our model has better accuracy than baseline Gradient boosting solutions, as the $R^2$ score for it is $0.90$ compared to $0.85$ for Gradient boosting. Specific attention is on the range of applicability of the model. We examine various regions across the globe to validate them under different conditions. We complement the results with an analysis of how future climate changes for different scenarios affect the PDSI and how our model can help to make better decisions and more sustainable economics.

Differentiable Language Model Adversarial Attacks on Categorical Sequence Classifiers

An adversarial attack paradigm explores various scenarios for the vulnerability of deep learning models: minor changes of the input can force a model failure. Most of the state of the art frameworks focus on adversarial attacks for images and other structured model inputs, but not for categorical sequences models. Successful attacks on classifiers of categorical sequences are challenging because the model input is tokens from finite sets, so a classifier score is non-differentiable with respect to inputs, and gradient-based attacks are not applicable. Common approaches deal with this problem working at a token level, while the discrete optimization problem at hand requires a lot of resources to solve. We instead use a fine-tuning of a language model for adversarial attacks as a generator of adversarial examples. To optimize the model, we define a differentiable loss function that depends on a surrogate classifier score and on a deep learning model that evaluates approximate edit distance. So, we control both the adversability of a generated sequence and its similarity to the initial sequence. As a result, we obtain semantically better samples. Moreover, they are resistant to adversarial training and adversarial detectors. Our model works for diverse datasets on bank transactions, electronic health records, and NLP datasets.

Sequence embeddings help to identify fraudulent cases in healthcare insurance

Fraud causes substantial costs and losses for companies and clients in the finance and insurance industries. Examples are fraudulent credit card transactions or fraudulent claims. It has been estimated that roughly $10$ percent of the insurance industry's incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses each year stem from fraudulent claims. The rise and proliferation of digitization in finance and insurance have lead to big data sets, consisting in particular of text data, which can be used for fraud detection. In this paper, we propose architectures for text embeddings via deep learning, which help to improve the detection of fraudulent claims compared to other machine learning methods. We illustrate our methods using a data set from a large international health insurance company. The empirical results show that our approach outperforms other state-of-the-art methods and can help make the claims management process more efficient. As (unstructured) text data become increasingly available to economists and econometricians, our proposed methods will be valuable for many similar applications, particularly when variables have a large number of categories as is typical for example of the International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes in health economics and health services.

Usage of multiple RTL features for Earthquake prediction

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert forecasts based on features like Region-Time-Length (RTL) characteristics. The proposed approach uses machine learning on top of multiple RTL features to take into account effects at various scales and to improve prediction accuracy. For historical data about Japan earthquakes 1992-2005 and predictions at locations given in this database the best model has precision up to ~ 0.95 and recall up to ~ 0.98.