Urban-STA4CLC: Urban Theory-Informed Spatio-Temporal Attention Model for Predicting Post-Disaster Commercial Land Use Change

Natural disasters such as hurricanes and wildfires increasingly introduce unusual disturbance on economic activities, which are especially likely to reshape commercial land use pattern given their sensitive to customer visitation. However, current modeling approaches are limited in capturing such complex interplay between human activities and commercial land use change under and following disturbances. Such interactions have been more effectively captured in current resilient urban planning theories. This study designs and calibrates a Urban Theory-Informed Spatio-Temporal Attention Model for Predicting Post-Disaster Commercial Land Use Change (Urban-STA4CLC) to predict both the yearly decline and expansion of commercial land use at census block level under cumulative impact of disasters on human activities over two years. Guided by urban theories, Urban-STA4CLC integrates both spatial and temporal attention mechanisms with three theory-informed modules. Resilience theory guides a disaster-aware temporal attention module that captures visitation dynamics. Spatial economic theory informs a multi-relational spatial attention module for inter-block representation. Diffusion theory contributes a regularization term that constrains land use transitions. The model performs significantly better than non-theoretical baselines in predicting commercial land use change under the scenario of recurrent hurricanes, with around 19% improvement in F1 score (0.8763). The effectiveness of the theory-guided modules was further validated through ablation studies. The research demonstrates that embedding urban theory into commercial land use modeling models may substantially enhance the capacity to capture its gains and losses. These advances in commercial land use modeling contribute to land use research that accounts for cumulative impacts of recurrent disasters and shifts in economic activity patterns.