Predict before you train: Scaling Laws for particle physics foundation models

The largest machine learning models in particle physics are also the most expensive to train, yet the return on scaling a given architecture cannot be estimated before that compute is spent. Scaling laws have been fit for jets, but none has yet been shown to predict the performance of models it was not fit on. We show that, for a generic transformer pretrained on collider jets, it can be forecast. Fitting a joint model-and-data scaling law on small models alone, spanning three orders of magnitude of training compute, we predict the loss of models trained afterward with more than one hundred times more compute to within one percent. We then connect the forecast to downstream physics performance: across two standard tagging benchmarks, lower pretraining loss yields systematically lower fine-tuning loss and higher background rejection after fine-tuning. Within this model family and these tasks, a compute budget can therefore be translated into expected physics performance before any large model is trained. The final frontier model is consistent with the published numbers for current state-of-the-art physics-aware foundation models trained on the same corpus, on accuracy, AUC, and quark/gluon rejection, with a residual edge for the physics-aware model only in the high-purity tail of top tagging. We release five pretrained models spanning multiple sizes, together with the complete training recipe and code.