Potential Destination Prediction Based on Knowledge Graph Under Low Predictability Data Condition

Destination prediction has been a critical topic in transportation research, and there are a large number of studies. However, almost all existing studies are based on high predictability data conditions while pay less attention to the data condition with low predictability, where the regularity of single individuals is not exposed. Based on a certain period of observation, there is a fact that individuals may choose destinations beyond observation, which we call "potential destinations". The number of potential destinations is very large and can't be ignored for the data condition with low predictability formed by short-term observation.To reveal the choice pattern of potential destination of individuals under the data condition with low predictability, we propose a global optimization method based on knowledge graph embedding. First, we joint the trip data of all individuals by constructing Trip Knowledge Graph(TKG). Next, we optimize the general algorithm of knowledge graph embedding for our data and task in training strategy and objective function, then implement it on TKG. It can achieve global optimization for association paths that exist between almost any two entities in TKG. On this basis, a method for potential destination prediction is proposed, giving the possible ranking of unobserved destinations for each individual. In addition, we improve the performance by fusing static statistical information that is not passed to TKG. Finally, we validate our method in a real-world dataset, and the prediction results are highly consistent with individuals' potential destination choice behaviour.