How Much Cache Does Reasoning Need? Depth-Cache Tradeoffs in KV-Compressed Transformers

The key-value (KV) cache is the dominant memory bottleneck during Transformer inference, yet little is known theoretically about how aggressively it can be compressed before multi-step reasoning degrades. We study this through $k$-hop pointer chasing on $n$ tokens under a shared KV cache of size $s$, attention dimension $m$, $H$ heads, $p$-bit precision, and a locality-respecting cache controller (satisfied by all standard KV-compression methods). We give three results. (1) Product depth lower bound (conjectured). We conjecture that any such Transformer ($n \geq 4k$, $s \leq \sqrt{n}/4$) requires depth $L = Ω(\lceil k/s \rceil \cdot \lceil \log_2 n/(Hmp) \rceil)$, and isolate the sole remaining gap as a probabilistic step on the joint distribution of cache trace and pointer chain. Unconditionally, we prove a matching upper bound $L = O(\min(k, \lceil k/s \rceil \log s) \cdot \log n/(mp))$ via windowed pointer doubling, and a max-bound $L = Ω(\max(\lceil k/s \rceil, \log n/(Hmp)))$. Closing the conjecture amounts to upgrading max to product. (2) Bandwidth barrier. The product bound binds only when $Hmp \lesssim \log n$. Any lower bound provable via per-window distinguishability counting -- including reachability, bandwidth, and combinations -- cannot exceed $\lceil k/s \rceil$ once $Hmp \geq \log_2 n$. Breaking this requires lifting unconditional communication-complexity bounds for pointer chasing to Cache-Transformer depth. (3) Adaptive vs oblivious error scaling. Under random cache over $T = \lceil \log_2 k \rceil$ doubling stages, oblivious caches give $\Pr[\mathcal{E}] \leq (s/(n-T))^T + 2T^3/n$ (exponential in $T$), while adaptive locality-respecting caches achieve $\Pr[\mathcal{E}] = s/n$ exactly, independent of $T$. The $Ω((n/s)^{T-1})$ separation explains why heavy-hitter eviction empirically dominates random eviction for multi-hop reasoning.