Convergence Theory for Iterative LLM-Based Neural Architecture Search: A Parametric Cross-Entropy Framework with Closed-Form Proxy Reliability

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as generators in iterative neural architecture search (NAS), yet no formal convergence theory exists for this class of algorithms. We model iterative LLM-NAS as a parametric Cross-Entropy (CE) method over executable programs and prove six results: (1) iterative LLM fine-tuning on elite architectures is equivalent to the CE update restricted to the LLM parametric family; (2) expected architecture quality is monotonically non-decreasing across cycles; (3) elite-set probability converges to a fixed point at a geometric rate C_t >= 1-(1-rho_0)^t; (4) delta-based generation achieves a strictly higher valid-generation rate than full-code generation under a first-order Markov token-error model; (5) the MinHash-Jaccard novelty filter prevents mode collapse; (6) proxy reliability admits the closed-form rho_S = (6/pi) arcsin(rho_P(SNR)/2), yielding the practical diagnostic sigma^2_arch >> sigma^2_noise as a necessary condition for trustworthy proxy-based rankings. Testing against a 22-cycle, three-LLM, six-dataset experiment with 3,300 generated architectures confirms two predictions quantitatively, two at direction-of-effect level, and explains the proxy-reliability ceiling effect previously reported empirically but left unexplained.