Reliability comparison of vessel trajectory prediction models via Probability of Detection

This contribution addresses vessel trajectory prediction (VTP), focusing on the evaluation of different deep learning-based approaches. The objective is to assess model performance in diverse traffic complexities and compare the reliability of the approaches. While previous VTP models overlook the specific traffic situation complexity and lack reliability assessments, this research uses a probability of detection analysis to quantify model reliability in varying traffic scenarios, thus going beyond common error distribution analyses. All models are evaluated on test samples categorized according to their traffic situation during the prediction horizon, with performance metrics and reliability estimates obtained for each category. The results of this comprehensive evaluation provide a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the different prediction approaches, along with their reliability in terms of the prediction horizon lengths for which safe forecasts can be guaranteed. These findings can inform the development of more reliable vessel trajectory prediction approaches, enhancing safety and efficiency in future inland waterways navigation.

Advanced POD-Based Performance Evaluation of Classifiers Applied to Human Driver Lane Changing Prediction

Machine learning (ML) classifiers serve as essential tools facilitating classification and prediction across various domains. The performance of these algorithms should be known to ensure their reliable application. In certain fields, receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curves are frequently employed to assess machine learning algorithms without accounting for the impact of process parameters. However, it may be essential to evaluate the performance of these algorithms in relation to such parameters. As a performance evaluation metric capable of considering the effects of process parameters, this paper uses a modified probability of detection (POD) approach to assess the reliability of ML-based algorithms. As an example, the POD-based approach is employed to assess ML models used for predicting the lane changing behavior of a vehicle driver. The time remaining to the predicted (and therefore unknown) lane changing event is considered as process parameter. The hit/miss approach to POD is taken here and modified by considering the probability of lane changing derived from ML algorithms at each time step, and obtaining the final result of the analysis accordingly. This improves the reliability of results compared to the standard hit/miss approach, which considers the outcome of the classifiers as either 0 or 1, while also simplifying evaluation compared to the \^a versus a approach. Performance evaluation results of the proposed approach are compared with those obtained with the standard hit/miss approach and a pre-developed \^a versus a approach to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The comparison shows that this method provides an averaging conservative behavior with the advantage of enhancing the reliability of the hit/miss approach to POD while retaining its simplicity.