The Impact of Demand Forecasting on Delay and Jitter in DVB-Based Beam-Hopping LEO Networks

In LEO satellite networks utilizing beam hopping (BH), resource allocation plans must be committed well in advance. This inherent operational delay necessitates predicting future user demand during the planning phase. Such predictive agility is particularly crucial for military applications, where unpredictable tactical environments demand low-latency, resilient communication links. However, existing forecasting models are typically evaluated based on standalone accuracy, ignoring their cross-layer impact on overall network performance. To address this gap, we evaluate two distinct demand forecasting solutions within a comprehensive, full-stack LEO satellite simulation compliant with DVB-S2X standards. Beyond prediction accuracy, we examine how incorporating user demand forecasts into BH plan generation impacts key network metrics, particularly delay and jitter. We evaluate these forecasting solutions alongside a static allocation baseline. Our results demonstrate that forecast-based dynamic planning reduces delay by 10-40% across the beams under certain load conditions compared to static allocation methods. Crucially, marginal improvements in predictive accuracy do not translate into proportional network metric gains. While the evaluated forecasting solutions differ by 14-16% in Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE), this discrepancy yields less than a 1% reduction in delay and produces nearly identical jitter characteristics. These findings suggest that when designing user demand forecasting solutions for practical LEO deployments, prioritizing system scalability may be more valuable than chasing minor accuracy enhancements.

Burst Aware Forecasting of User Traffic Demand in LEO Satellite Networks

In Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks, Beam Hopping (BH) technology enables the efficient utilization of limited radio resources by adapting to varying user demands and link conditions. Effective BH planning requires prior knowledge of upcoming traffic at the time of scheduling, making forecasting an important sub-task. Forecasting becomes particularly critical under heavy load conditions where an unexpected demand burst combined with link degradation may cause buffer overflows and packet loss. To address this challenge, we propose a burst aware forecasting solution. This challenge may arise in a wide range of wireless networks; therefore, the proposed solution is broadly applicable to settings characterized by bursty traffic patterns where accurate demand forecasting is essential. Our approach introduces three key enhancements to a transformer architecture: (i) a distance from the last burst embedding to capture burst proximity, (ii) two additional linear layers in the decoder to forecast both upcoming bursts and their relative impact, and (iii) use of an asymmetric cost function during model training to better capture burst dynamics. Empirical evaluations in an Earth-fixed cell under high-traffic demand scenario demonstrate that the proposed model reduces prediction error by up to 94% at a one-step horizon and maintains the ability to accurately capture bursts even near the end of longer prediction horizons following Mean Square Error (MSE) metric.