A transformer-based generative model for planetary systems

Numerical calculations of planetary system formation are very demanding in terms of computing power. These synthetic planetary systems can however provide access to correlations, as predicted in a given numerical framework, between the properties of planets in the same system. Such correlations can, in return, be used in order to guide and prioritize observational campaigns aiming at discovering some types of planets, as Earth-like planets. Our goal is to develop a generative model which is capable of capturing correlations and statistical relationships between planets in the same system. Such a model, trained on the Bern model, offers the possibility to generate large number of synthetic planetary systems with little computational cost, that can be used, for example, to guide observational campaigns. Our generative model is based on the transformer architecture which is well-known to efficiently capture correlations in sequences and is at the basis of all modern Large Language Models. To assess the validity of the generative model, we perform visual and statistical comparisons, as well as a machine learning driven tests. Finally, as a use case example, we consider the TOI-469 system, in which we aim at predicting the possible properties of planets c and d, based on the properties of planet b (the first that has been detected). We show using different comparison methods that the properties of systems generated by our model are very similar to the ones of the systems computed directly by the Bern model. We also show in the case of the TOI-469 system, that using the generative model allows to predict the properties of planets not yet observed, based on the properties of the already observed planet. We provide our model to the community on our website www.ai4exoplanets.com.

Earth-like planet predictor: A machine learning approach

Searching for planets analogous to Earth in terms of mass and equilibrium temperature is currently the first step in the quest for habitable conditions outside our Solar System and, ultimately, the search for life in the universe. Future missions such as PLATO or LIFE will begin to detect and characterise these small, cold planets, dedicating significant observation time to them. The aim of this work is to predict which stars are most likely to host an Earth-like planet (ELP) to avoid blind searches, minimises detection times, and thus maximises the number of detections. Using a previous study on correlations between the presence of an ELP and the properties of its system, we trained a Random Forest to recognise and classify systems as 'hosting an ELP' or 'not hosting an ELP'. The Random Forest was trained and tested on populations of synthetic planetary systems derived from the Bern model, and then applied to real observed systems. The tests conducted on the machine learning (ML) model yield precision scores of up to 0.99, indicating that 99% of the systems identified by the model as having ELPs possess at least one. Among the few real observed systems that have been tested, 44 have been selected as having a high probability of hosting an ELP, and a quick study of the stability of these systems confirms that the presence of an Earth-like planet within them would leave them stable. The excellent results obtained from the tests conducted on the ML model demonstrate its ability to recognise the typical architectures of systems with or without ELPs within populations derived from the Bern model. If we assume that the Bern model adequately describes the architecture of real systems, then such a tool can prove indispensable in the search for Earth-like planets. A similar approach could be applied to other planetary system formation models to validate those predictions.

Exoplanet Characterization using Conditional Invertible Neural Networks

The characterization of an exoplanet's interior is an inverse problem, which requires statistical methods such as Bayesian inference in order to be solved. Current methods employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to infer the posterior probability of planetary structure parameters for a given exoplanet. These methods are time consuming since they require the calculation of a large number of planetary structure models. To speed up the inference process when characterizing an exoplanet, we propose to use conditional invertible neural networks (cINNs) to calculate the posterior probability of the internal structure parameters. cINNs are a special type of neural network which excel in solving inverse problems. We constructed a cINN using FrEIA, which was then trained on a database of $5.6\cdot 10^6$ internal structure models to recover the inverse mapping between internal structure parameters and observable features (i.e., planetary mass, planetary radius and composition of the host star). The cINN method was compared to a Metropolis-Hastings MCMC. For that we repeated the characterization of the exoplanet K2-111 b, using both the MCMC method and the trained cINN. We show that the inferred posterior probability of the internal structure parameters from both methods are very similar, with the biggest differences seen in the exoplanet's water content. Thus cINNs are a possible alternative to the standard time-consuming sampling methods. Indeed, using cINNs allows for orders of magnitude faster inference of an exoplanet's composition than what is possible using an MCMC method, however, it still requires the computation of a large database of internal structures to train the cINN. Since this database is only computed once, we found that using a cINN is more efficient than an MCMC, when more than 10 exoplanets are characterized using the same cINN.