Accelerated Online Risk-Averse Policy Evaluation in POMDPs with Theoretical Guarantees and Novel CVaR Bounds

Risk-averse decision-making under uncertainty in partially observable domains is a central challenge in artificial intelligence and is essential for developing reliable autonomous agents. The formal framework for such problems is the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where risk sensitivity is introduced through a risk measure applied to the value function, with Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) being a particularly significant criterion. However, solving POMDPs is computationally intractable in general, and approximate methods rely on computationally expensive simulations of future agent trajectories. This work introduces a theoretical framework for accelerating CVaR value function evaluation in POMDPs with formal performance guarantees. We derive new bounds on the CVaR of a random variable X using an auxiliary random variable Y, under assumptions relating their cumulative distribution and density functions; these bounds yield interpretable concentration inequalities and converge as the distributional discrepancy vanishes. Building on this, we establish upper and lower bounds on the CVaR value function computable from a simplified belief-MDP, accommodating general simplifications of the transition dynamics. We develop estimators for these bounds within a particle-belief MDP framework with probabilistic guarantees, and employ them for acceleration via action elimination: actions whose bounds indicate suboptimality under the simplified model are safely discarded while ensuring consistency with the original POMDP. Empirical evaluation across multiple POMDP domains confirms that the bounds reliably separate safe from dangerous policies while achieving substantial computational speedups under the simplified model.

POMDPPlanners: Open-Source Package for POMDP Planning

We present POMDPPlanners, an open-source Python package for empirical evaluation of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) planning algorithms. The package integrates state-of-the-art planning algorithms, a suite of benchmark environments with safety-critical variants, automated hyperparameter optimization via Optuna, persistent caching with failure recovery, and configurable parallel simulation -- reducing the overhead of extensive simulation studies. POMDPPlanners is designed to enable scalable, reproducible research on decision-making under uncertainty, with particular emphasis on risk-sensitive settings where standard toolkits fall short.

Online Risk-Averse Planning in POMDPs Using Iterated CVaR Value Function

We study risk-sensitive planning under partial observability using the dynamic risk measure Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (ICVaR). A policy evaluation algorithm for ICVaR is developed with finite-time performance guarantees that do not depend on the cardinality of the action space. Building on this foundation, three widely used online planning algorithms--Sparse Sampling, Particle Filter Trees with Double Progressive Widening (PFT-DPW), and Partially Observable Monte Carlo Planning with Observation Widening (POMCPOW)--are extended to optimize the ICVaR value function rather than the expectation of the return. Our formulations introduce a risk parameter $α$, where $α= 1$ recovers standard expectation-based planning and $α< 1$ induces increasing risk aversion. For ICVaR Sparse Sampling, we establish finite-time performance guarantees under the risk-sensitive objective, which further enable a novel exploration strategy tailored to ICVaR. Experiments on benchmark POMDP domains demonstrate that the proposed ICVaR planners achieve lower tail risk compared to their risk-neutral counterparts.

Simplification of Risk Averse POMDPs with Performance Guarantees

Risk averse decision making under uncertainty in partially observable domains is a fundamental problem in AI and essential for reliable autonomous agents. In our case, the problem is modeled using partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), when the value function is the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the return. Calculating an optimal solution for POMDPs is computationally intractable in general. In this work we develop a simplification framework to speedup the evaluation of the value function, while providing performance guarantees. We consider as simplification a computationally cheaper belief-MDP transition model, that can correspond, e.g., to cheaper observation or transition models. Our contributions include general bounds for CVaR that allow bounding the CVaR of a random variable X, using a random variable Y, by assuming bounds between their cumulative distributions. We then derive bounds for the CVaR value function in a POMDP setting, and show how to bound the value function using the computationally cheaper belief-MDP transition model and without accessing the computationally expensive model in real-time. Then, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for the estimated bounds. Our results apply for a general simplification of a belief-MDP transition model and support simplification of both the observation and state transition models simultaneously.