Estimation of High-Dimensional Markov-Switching VAR Models with an Approximate EM Algorithm

Regime shifts in high-dimensional time series arise naturally in many applications, from neuroimaging to finance. This problem has received considerable attention in low-dimensional settings, with both Bayesian and frequentist methods used extensively for parameter estimation. The EM algorithm is a particularly popular strategy for parameter estimation in low-dimensional settings, although the statistical properties of the resulting estimates have not been well understood. Furthermore, its extension to high-dimensional time series has proved challenging. To overcome these challenges, in this paper we propose an approximate EM algorithm for Markov-switching VAR models that leads to efficient computation and also facilitates the investigation of asymptotic properties of the resulting parameter estimates. We establish the consistency of the proposed EM algorithm in high dimensions and investigate its performance via simulation studies.

Discussion of Kallus (2020) and Mo, Qi, and Liu (2020): New Objectives for Policy Learning

We discuss the thought-provoking new objective functions for policy learning that were proposed in "More efficient policy learning via optimal retargeting" by Nathan Kallus and "Learning optimal distributionally robust individualized treatment rules" by Weibin Mo, Zhengling Qi, and Yufeng Liu. We show that it is important to take the curvature of the value function into account when working within the retargeting framework, and we introduce two ways to do so. We also describe more efficient approaches for leveraging calibration data when learning distributionally robust policies.