Why Do Self-Harm Prediction Models Struggle to Generalise? Lexical and Semantic Variations in Emergency Department Triage Notes

Self-harm presentations to emergency departments (EDs) are strongly associated with higher suicide risk. NLP models have shown robust performance in detecting self-harm from triage notes within single hospitals, yet performance often declines across institutions. To examine potential causes, we compare ED triage notes from two hospitals by analyzing lexical characteristics, highly associated predictive features, and salient topics. Our results reveal variation in lexical expression and feature importance related to self-harm across hospitals, despite consistent core themes such as self-poisoning and self-injury. These documentation differences are associated with reduced cross-site performance. Our findings provide insight into how institutional variation affects the identification of self-harm in clinical text and highlight potential methods to improve model generalisability.

Transferable Self-Harm Surveillance from Emergency Department Triage Notes Using an Evidence-Augmented Machine Learning Approach

Self-harm is a major public health concern, but current surveillance relying on hospital presentations is inadequate due to the low sensitivity of diagnostic codes. Emergency Department (ED) triage notes, recorded at the initial point of contact, provide a succinct summary of presentations and an opportunity to identify self-harm. We developed a three-stage approach, augmenting traditional machine learning with large language model-based screening and evidence extraction to detect self-harm in ED triage notes. We assessed model transferability across three Australian hospitals. Our approach showed AUPRCs of 0.887 +/- 0.016 and 0.884 +/- 0.012 during internal and external validation. Prospectively, it achieved AUPRC of 0.881 +/- 0.008 at the development site, and 0.879 +/- 0.012 and 0.816 +/- 0.015 at two external sites without site-specific retraining. A key advantage of the approach is that it enables identification of the primary self-harm method with an accuracy of 95%, supporting more granular surveillance beyond binary classification.