Evaluating Time Series Models for Urban Wastewater Management: Predictive Performance, Model Complexity and Resilience

Climate change increases the frequency of extreme rainfall, placing a significant strain on urban infrastructures, especially Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overflows from overburdened CSS release untreated wastewater into surface waters, posing environmental and public health risks. Although traditional physics-based models are effective, they are costly to maintain and difficult to adapt to evolving system dynamics. Machine Learning (ML) approaches offer cost-efficient alternatives with greater adaptability. To systematically assess the potential of ML for modeling urban infrastructure systems, we propose a protocol for evaluating Neural Network architectures for CSS time series forecasting with respect to predictive performance, model complexity, and robustness to perturbations. In addition, we assess model performance on peak events and critical fluctuations, as these are the key regimes for urban wastewater management. To investigate the feasibility of lightweight models suitable for IoT deployment, we compare global models, which have access to all information, with local models, which rely solely on nearby sensor readings. Additionally, to explore the security risks posed by network outages or adversarial attacks on urban infrastructure, we introduce error models that assess the resilience of models. Our results demonstrate that while global models achieve higher predictive performance, local models provide sufficient resilience in decentralized scenarios, ensuring robust modeling of urban infrastructure. Furthermore, models with longer native forecast horizons exhibit greater robustness to data perturbations. These findings contribute to the development of interpretable and reliable ML solutions for sustainable urban wastewater management. The implementation is available in our GitHub repository.

Data-driven Modeling of Combined Sewer Systems for Urban Sustainability: An Empirical Evaluation

Climate change poses complex challenges, with extreme weather events becoming increasingly frequent and difficult to model. Examples include the dynamics of Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overburdened CSS during heavy rainfall will overflow untreated wastewater into surface water bodies. Classical approaches to modeling the impact of extreme rainfall events rely on physical simulations, which are particularly challenging to create for large urban infrastructures. Deep Learning (DL) models offer a cost-effective alternative for modeling the complex dynamics of sewer systems. In this study, we present a comprehensive empirical evaluation of several state-of-the-art DL time series models for predicting sewer system dynamics in a large urban infrastructure, utilizing three years of measurement data. We especially investigate the potential of DL models to maintain predictive precision during network outages by comparing global models, which have access to all variables within the sewer system, and local models, which are limited to data from a restricted set of local sensors. Our findings demonstrate that DL models can accurately predict the dynamics of sewer system load, even under network outage conditions. These results suggest that DL models can effectively aid in balancing the load redistribution in CSS, thereby enhancing the sustainability and resilience of urban infrastructures.