Controlling Federated Learning for Covertness

A learner aims to minimize a function $f$ by repeatedly querying a distributed oracle that provides noisy gradient evaluations. At the same time, the learner seeks to hide $\arg\min f$ from a malicious eavesdropper that observes the learner's queries. This paper considers the problem of \textit{covert} or \textit{learner-private} optimization, where the learner has to dynamically choose between learning and obfuscation by exploiting the stochasticity. The problem of controlling the stochastic gradient algorithm for covert optimization is modeled as a Markov decision process, and we show that the dynamic programming operator has a supermodular structure implying that the optimal policy has a monotone threshold structure. A computationally efficient policy gradient algorithm is proposed to search for the optimal querying policy without knowledge of the transition probabilities. As a practical application, our methods are demonstrated on a hate speech classification task in a federated setting where an eavesdropper can use the optimal weights to generate toxic content, which is more easily misclassified. Numerical results show that when the learner uses the optimal policy, an eavesdropper can only achieve a validation accuracy of $52\%$ with no information and $69\%$ when it has a public dataset with 10\% positive samples compared to $83\%$ when the learner employs a greedy policy.

Fréchet Statistics Based Change Point Detection in Multivariate Hawkes Process

This paper proposes a new approach for change point detection in causal networks of multivariate Hawkes processes using Frechet statistics. Our method splits the point process into overlapping windows, estimates kernel matrices in each window, and reconstructs the signed Laplacians by treating the kernel matrices as the adjacency matrices of the causal network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments on both simulated and real-world cryptocurrency datasets. Our results show that our method is capable of accurately detecting and characterizing changes in the causal structure of multivariate Hawkes processes, and may have potential applications in fields such as finance and neuroscience. The proposed method is an extension of previous work on Frechet statistics in point process settings and represents an important contribution to the field of change point detection in multivariate point processes.

Energy-Efficient Mining for Blockchain-Enabled IoT Applications. An Optimal Multiple-Stopping Time Approach

What are the optimal times for an Internet of Things (IoT) device to act as a blockchain miner? The aim is to minimize the energy consumed by low-power IoT devices that log their data into a secure (tamper-proof) distributed ledger. We formulate the energy-efficient blockchain mining for IoT devices as a multiple-stopping time partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) to maximize the probability of adding a block in the blockchain; we also present a model to optimize the number of stops (mining instants). In general, POMDPs are computationally intractable to solve, but we show mathematically using submodularity that the optimal mining policy has a useful structure: 1) it is monotone in belief space, and 2) it exhibits a threshold structure, which divides the belief space into two connected sets. Exploiting the structural results, we formulate a computationally-efficient linear mining policy for the blockchain-enabled IoT device. We present a policy gradient technique to optimize the parameters of the linear mining policy. Finally, we use synthetic and real Bitcoin datasets to study the performance of our proposed mining policy. We demonstrate the energy efficiency achieved by the optimal linear mining policy in contrast to other heuristic strategies.

Statistical Detection of Coordination in a Cognitive Radar Network through Inverse Multi-objective Optimization

Consider a target being tracked by a cognitive radar network. If the target can intercept noisy radar emissions, how can it detect coordination in the radar network? By 'coordination' we mean that the radar emissions satisfy Pareto optimality with respect to multi-objective optimization over the objective functions of each radar and a constraint on total network power output. This paper provides a novel inverse multi-objective optimization approach for statistically detecting Pareto optimal ('coordinating') behavior, from a finite dataset of noisy radar emissions. Specifically, we develop necessary and sufficient conditions for radar network emissions to be consistent with multi-objective optimization (coordination), and we provide a statistical detector with theoretical guarantees for determining this consistency when radar emissions are observed in noise. We also provide numerical simulations which validate our approach. Note that while we make use of the specific framework of a radar network coordination problem, our results apply more generally to the field of inverse multi-objective optimization.

Finite-Sample Bounds for Adaptive Inverse Reinforcement Learning using Passive Langevin Dynamics

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) are a useful methodology for sampling from probability distributions. This paper provides a finite sample analysis of a passive stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics algorithm (PSGLD) designed to achieve inverse reinforcement learning. By "passive", we mean that the noisy gradients available to the PSGLD algorithm (inverse learning process) are evaluated at randomly chosen points by an external stochastic gradient algorithm (forward learner). The PSGLD algorithm thus acts as a randomized sampler which recovers the cost function being optimized by this external process. Previous work has analyzed the asymptotic performance of this passive algorithm using stochastic approximation techniques; in this work we analyze the non-asymptotic performance. Specifically, we provide finite-time bounds on the 2-Wasserstein distance between the passive algorithm and its stationary measure, from which the reconstructed cost function is obtained.

Who You Play Affects How You Play: Predicting Sports Performance Using Graph Attention Networks With Temporal Convolution

This study presents a novel deep learning method, called GATv2-GCN, for predicting player performance in sports. To construct a dynamic player interaction graph, we leverage player statistics and their interactions during gameplay. We use a graph attention network to capture the attention that each player pays to each other, allowing for more accurate modeling of the dynamic player interactions. To handle the multivariate player statistics time series, we incorporate a temporal convolution layer, which provides the model with temporal predictive power. We evaluate the performance of our model using real-world sports data, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting player performance. Furthermore, we explore the potential use of our model in a sports betting context, providing insights into profitable strategies that leverage our predictive power. The proposed method has the potential to advance the state-of-the-art in player performance prediction and to provide valuable insights for sports analytics and betting industries.

Fréchet Statistics Based Change Point Detection in Dynamic Social Networks

This paper proposes a method to detect change points in dynamic social networks using Fr\'echet statistics. We address two main questions: (1) what metric can quantify the distances between graph Laplacians in a dynamic network and enable efficient computation, and (2) how can the Fr\'echet statistics be extended to detect multiple change points while maintaining the significance level of the hypothesis test? Our solution defines a metric space for graph Laplacians using the Log-Euclidean metric, enabling a closed-form formula for Fr\'echet mean and variance. We present a framework for change point detection using Fr\'echet statistics and extend it to multiple change points with binary segmentation. The proposed algorithm uses incremental computation for Fr\'echet mean and variance to improve efficiency and is validated on simulated and two real-world datasets, namely the UCI message dataset and the Enron email dataset.

Radar Clutter Covariance Estimation: A Nonlinear Spectral Shrinkage Approach

In this paper, we exploit the spiked covariance structure of the clutter plus noise covariance matrix for radar signal processing. Using state-of-the-art techniques high dimensional statistics, we propose a nonlinear shrinkage-based rotation invariant spiked covariance matrix estimator. We state the convergence of the estimated spiked eigenvalues. We use a dataset generated from the high-fidelity, site-specific physics-based radar simulation software RFView to compare the proposed algorithm against the existing Rank Constrained Maximum Likelihood (RCML)-Expected Likelihood (EL) covariance estimation algorithm. We demonstrate that the computation time for the estimation by the proposed algorithm is less than the RCML-EL algorithm with identical Signal to Clutter plus Noise (SCNR) performance. We show that the proposed algorithm and the RCML-EL-based algorithm share the same optimization problem in high dimensions. We use Low-Rank Adaptive Normalized Matched Filter (LR-ANMF) detector to compute the detection probabilities for different false alarm probabilities over a range of target SNR. We present preliminary results which demonstrate the robustness of the detector against contaminating clutter discretes using the Challenge Dataset from RFView. Finally, we empirically show that the minimum variance distortionless beamformer (MVDR) error variance for the proposed algorithm is identical to the error variance resulting from the true covariance matrix.

Dynamics of Social Networks: Multi-agent Information Fusion, Anticipatory Decision Making and Polling

This paper surveys mathematical models, structural results and algorithms in controlled sensing with social learning in social networks. Part 1, namely Bayesian Social Learning with Controlled Sensing addresses the following questions: How does risk averse behavior in social learning affect quickest change detection? How can information fusion be priced? How is the convergence rate of state estimation affected by social learning? The aim is to develop and extend structural results in stochastic control and Bayesian estimation to answer these questions. Such structural results yield fundamental bounds on the optimal performance, give insight into what parameters affect the optimal policies, and yield computationally efficient algorithms. Part 2, namely, Multi-agent Information Fusion with Behavioral Economics Constraints generalizes Part 1. The agents exhibit sophisticated decision making in a behavioral economics sense; namely the agents make anticipatory decisions (thus the decision strategies are time inconsistent and interpreted as subgame Bayesian Nash equilibria). Part 3, namely {\em Interactive Sensing in Large Networks}, addresses the following questions: How to track the degree distribution of an infinite random graph with dynamics (via a stochastic approximation on a Hilbert space)? How can the infected degree distribution of a Markov modulated power law network and its mean field dynamics be tracked via Bayesian filtering given incomplete information obtained by sampling the network? We also briefly discuss how the glass ceiling effect emerges in social networks. Part 4, namely \emph{Efficient Network Polling} deals with polling in large scale social networks. In such networks, only a fraction of nodes can be polled to determine their decisions. Which nodes should be polled to achieve a statistically accurate estimates?

Adaptive ECCM for Mitigating Smart Jammers

This paper considers adaptive radar electronic counter-counter measures (ECCM) to mitigate ECM by an adversarial jammer. Our ECCM approach models the jammer-radar interaction as a Principal Agent Problem (PAP), a popular economics framework for interaction between two entities with an information imbalance. In our setup, the radar does not know the jammer's utility. Instead, the radar learns the jammer's utility adaptively over time using inverse reinforcement learning. The radar's adaptive ECCM objective is two-fold (1) maximize its utility by solving the PAP, and (2) estimate the jammer's utility by observing its response. Our adaptive ECCM scheme uses deep ideas from revealed preference in micro-economics and principal agent problem in contract theory. Our numerical results show that, over time, our adaptive ECCM both identifies and mitigates the jammer's utility.