Poker Arena: Multi-Axis Profiling of Strategic Reasoning and Memory in LLMs

Strategic reasoning under uncertainty underpins consequential decisions in negotiation, finance, and policy, but prevailing game-play benchmarks collapse heterogeneous reasoning dimensions into a single scalar, leaving the capability structure of frontier LLMs unexamined. We introduce Poker Arena, a no-limit Texas Hold'em tournament platform that couples a three-layer memory architecture (within-hand, session, and cross-session) with a nine-axis cognitive profile decomposing strategic reasoning into interpretable dimensions such as bet-sizing calibration and positional awareness. We evaluate seven frontier models across 50 sessions of 1,000 hands and a controlled memory ablation; tournament chips and aggregate axis score order the field differently: Claude Opus 4.6 wins +$15,730 chips with 14 first-place finishes, yet ranks only fifth of seven on mean axis score, while persistent memory helps some models and hurts others. These findings show that multi-axis evaluation surfaces capability structure that scalar leaderboards systematically misrank, with cross-dimensional consistency outweighing peak performance on any single axis.

Do Vision-Language Models See or Guess? Measuring and Reducing Textual-Prior Reliance with a Phrasing-Controlled Benchmark

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed where answers must follow from what is in the image, yet they often answer from textual priors, the question's phrasing together with memorized world knowledge, rather than from the image itself, which inflates benchmark scores and yields confident but ungrounded answers. Existing benchmarks rarely isolate this behavior, since each image is usually paired with a single fixed question. To measure the reliance, we build a 540-image benchmark across six reasoning categories and generate four question variants over the same images, so that phrasing rather than image content is the controlled variable. The hardest variant is written directly from the image to minimize text leakage. We benchmark eleven VLMs spanning small open-weight models to large closed-source systems: every model degrades on the hardest variant, and open models fall furthest. Our central diagnostic is a no-image ablation, which collapses the open-weight models to their text-only floor (1 to 9 percent). Three further analyses, LLM-rated difficulty, low base-to-final textual similarity, and human re-annotation, corroborate genuine image-dependence. In-context exemplars that match how a variant was built recover the most accuracy, and GRPO post-training of a small VLM yields consistent gains across all four variants that transfer to a held-out out-of-distribution set. Textual-prior reliance is measurable and partly trainable away.