Multilevel Anomaly Detection for Mixed Data

Anomalies are those deviating from the norm. Unsupervised anomaly detection often translates to identifying low density regions. Major problems arise when data is high-dimensional and mixed of discrete and continuous attributes. We propose MIXMAD, which stands for MIXed data Multilevel Anomaly Detection, an ensemble method that estimates the sparse regions across multiple levels of abstraction of mixed data. The hypothesis is for domains where multiple data abstractions exist, a data point may be anomalous with respect to the raw representation or more abstract representations. To this end, our method sequentially constructs an ensemble of Deep Belief Nets (DBNs) with varying depths. Each DBN is an energy-based detector at a predefined abstraction level. At the bottom level of each DBN, there is a Mixed-variate Restricted Boltzmann Machine that models the density of mixed data. Predictions across the ensemble are finally combined via rank aggregation. The proposed MIXMAD is evaluated on high-dimensional realworld datasets of different characteristics. The results demonstrate that for anomaly detection, (a) multilevel abstraction of high-dimensional and mixed data is a sensible strategy, and (b) empirically, MIXMAD is superior to popular unsupervised detection methods for both homogeneous and mixed data.

Stabilizing Linear Prediction Models using Autoencoder

To date, the instability of prognostic predictors in a sparse high dimensional model, which hinders their clinical adoption, has received little attention. Stable prediction is often overlooked in favour of performance. Yet, stability prevails as key when adopting models in critical areas as healthcare. Our study proposes a stabilization scheme by detecting higher order feature correlations. Using a linear model as basis for prediction, we achieve feature stability by regularising latent correlation in features. Latent higher order correlation among features is modelled using an autoencoder network. Stability is enhanced by combining a recent technique that uses a feature graph, and augmenting external unlabelled data for training the autoencoder network. Our experiments are conducted on a heart failure cohort from an Australian hospital. Stability was measured using Consistency index for feature subsets and signal-to-noise ratio for model parameters. Our methods demonstrated significant improvement in feature stability and model estimation stability when compared to baselines.

A deep learning model for estimating story points

Although there has been substantial research in software analytics for effort estimation in traditional software projects, little work has been done for estimation in agile projects, especially estimating user stories or issues. Story points are the most common unit of measure used for estimating the effort involved in implementing a user story or resolving an issue. In this paper, we offer for the \emph{first} time a comprehensive dataset for story points-based estimation that contains 23,313 issues from 16 open source projects. We also propose a prediction model for estimating story points based on a novel combination of two powerful deep learning architectures: long short-term memory and recurrent highway network. Our prediction system is \emph{end-to-end} trainable from raw input data to prediction outcomes without any manual feature engineering. An empirical evaluation demonstrates that our approach consistently outperforms three common effort estimation baselines and two alternatives in both Mean Absolute Error and the Standardized Accuracy.

Outlier Detection on Mixed-Type Data: An Energy-based Approach

Outlier detection amounts to finding data points that differ significantly from the norm. Classic outlier detection methods are largely designed for single data type such as continuous or discrete. However, real world data is increasingly heterogeneous, where a data point can have both discrete and continuous attributes. Handling mixed-type data in a disciplined way remains a great challenge. In this paper, we propose a new unsupervised outlier detection method for mixed-type data based on Mixed-variate Restricted Boltzmann Machine (Mv.RBM). The Mv.RBM is a principled probabilistic method that models data density. We propose to use \emph{free-energy} derived from Mv.RBM as outlier score to detect outliers as those data points lying in low density regions. The method is fast to learn and compute, is scalable to massive datasets. At the same time, the outlier score is identical to data negative log-density up-to an additive constant. We evaluate the proposed method on synthetic and real-world datasets and demonstrate that (a) a proper handling mixed-types is necessary in outlier detection, and (b) free-energy of Mv.RBM is a powerful and efficient outlier scoring method, which is highly competitive against state-of-the-arts.

Faster Training of Very Deep Networks Via p-Norm Gates

A major contributing factor to the recent advances in deep neural networks is structural units that let sensory information and gradients to propagate easily. Gating is one such structure that acts as a flow control. Gates are employed in many recent state-of-the-art recurrent models such as LSTM and GRU, and feedforward models such as Residual Nets and Highway Networks. This enables learning in very deep networks with hundred layers and helps achieve record-breaking results in vision (e.g., ImageNet with Residual Nets) and NLP (e.g., machine translation with GRU). However, there is limited work in analysing the role of gating in the learning process. In this paper, we propose a flexible $p$-norm gating scheme, which allows user-controllable flow and as a consequence, improve the learning speed. This scheme subsumes other existing gating schemes, including those in GRU, Highway Networks and Residual Nets as special cases. Experiments on large sequence and vector datasets demonstrate that the proposed gating scheme helps improve the learning speed significantly without extra overhead.

A deep language model for software code

Existing language models such as n-grams for software code often fail to capture a long context where dependent code elements scatter far apart. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to build a language model for software code to address this particular issue. Our language model, partly inspired by human memory, is built upon the powerful deep learning-based Long Short Term Memory architecture that is capable of learning long-term dependencies which occur frequently in software code. Results from our intrinsic evaluation on a corpus of Java projects have demonstrated the effectiveness of our language model. This work contributes to realizing our vision for DeepSoft, an end-to-end, generic deep learning-based framework for modeling software and its development process.

DeepSoft: A vision for a deep model of software

Although software analytics has experienced rapid growth as a research area, it has not yet reached its full potential for wide industrial adoption. Most of the existing work in software analytics still relies heavily on costly manual feature engineering processes, and they mainly address the traditional classification problems, as opposed to predicting future events. We present a vision for \emph{DeepSoft}, an \emph{end-to-end} generic framework for modeling software and its development process to predict future risks and recommend interventions. DeepSoft, partly inspired by human memory, is built upon the powerful deep learning-based Long Short Term Memory architecture that is capable of learning long-term temporal dependencies that occur in software evolution. Such deep learned patterns of software can be used to address a range of challenging problems such as code and task recommendation and prediction. DeepSoft provides a new approach for research into modeling of source code, risk prediction and mitigation, developer modeling, and automatically generating code patches from bug reports.

Preterm Birth Prediction: Deriving Stable and Interpretable Rules from High Dimensional Data

Preterm births occur at an alarming rate of 10-15%. Preemies have a higher risk of infant mortality, developmental retardation and long-term disabilities. Predicting preterm birth is difficult, even for the most experienced clinicians. The most well-designed clinical study thus far reaches a modest sensitivity of 18.2-24.2% at specificity of 28.6-33.3%. We take a different approach by exploiting databases of normal hospital operations. We aims are twofold: (i) to derive an easy-to-use, interpretable prediction rule with quantified uncertainties, and (ii) to construct accurate classifiers for preterm birth prediction. Our approach is to automatically generate and select from hundreds (if not thousands) of possible predictors using stability-aware techniques. Derived from a large database of 15,814 women, our simplified prediction rule with only 10 items has sensitivity of 62.3% at specificity of 81.5%.

Deepr: A Convolutional Net for Medical Records

Feature engineering remains a major bottleneck when creating predictive systems from electronic medical records. At present, an important missing element is detecting predictive regular clinical motifs from irregular episodic records. We present Deepr (short for Deep record), a new end-to-end deep learning system that learns to extract features from medical records and predicts future risk automatically. Deepr transforms a record into a sequence of discrete elements separated by coded time gaps and hospital transfers. On top of the sequence is a convolutional neural net that detects and combines predictive local clinical motifs to stratify the risk. Deepr permits transparent inspection and visualization of its inner working. We validate Deepr on hospital data to predict unplanned readmission after discharge. Deepr achieves superior accuracy compared to traditional techniques, detects meaningful clinical motifs, and uncovers the underlying structure of the disease and intervention space.

An evaluation of randomized machine learning methods for redundant data: Predicting short and medium-term suicide risk from administrative records and risk assessments

Accurate prediction of suicide risk in mental health patients remains an open problem. Existing methods including clinician judgments have acceptable sensitivity, but yield many false positives. Exploiting administrative data has a great potential, but the data has high dimensionality and redundancies in the recording processes. We investigate the efficacy of three most effective randomized machine learning techniques random forests, gradient boosting machines, and deep neural nets with dropout in predicting suicide risk. Using a cohort of mental health patients from a regional Australian hospital, we compare the predictive performance with popular traditional approaches clinician judgments based on a checklist, sparse logistic regression and decision trees. The randomized methods demonstrated robustness against data redundancies and superior predictive performance on AUC and F-measure.