Differentiating Viral and Bacterial Infections: A Machine Learning Model Based on Routine Blood Test Values

The growing threat of antibiotic resistance necessitates accurate differentiation between bacterial and viral infections for proper antibiotic administration. In this study, a Virus vs. Bacteria machine learning model was developed to discern between these infection types using 16 routine blood test results, C-reactive protein levels, biological sex, and age. With a dataset of 44,120 cases from a single medical center, the Virus vs. Bacteria model demonstrated remarkable accuracy of 82.2%, a Brier score of 0.129, and an area under the ROC curve of 0.91, surpassing the performance of traditional CRP decision rule models. The model demonstrates substantially improved accuracy within the CRP range of 10 40 mg/L, an interval in which CRP alone offers limited diagnostic value for distinguishing between bacterial and viral infections. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple blood parameters for diagnostic decision-making and suggest that the Virus vs. Bacteria model could contribute to the creation of innovative diagnostic tools. Such tools would harness machine learning and relevant biomarkers to support enhanced clinical decision-making in managing infections.

COVID-19 diagnosis by routine blood tests using machine learning

Physicians taking care of patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have described different changes in routine blood parameters. However, these changes, hinder them from performing COVID-19 diagnosis. We constructed a machine learning predictive model for COVID-19 diagnosis. The model was based and cross-validated on the routine blood tests of 5,333 patients with various bacterial and viral infections, and 160 COVID-19-positive patients. We selected operational ROC point at a sensitivity of 81.9% and specificity of 97.9%. The cross-validated area under the curve (AUC) was 0.97. The five most useful routine blood parameters for COVID19 diagnosis according to the feature importance scoring of the XGBoost algorithm were MCHC, eosinophil count, albumin, INR, and prothrombin activity percentage. tSNE visualization showed that the blood parameters of the patients with severe COVID-19 course are more like the parameters of bacterial than viral infection. The reported diagnostic accuracy is at least comparable and probably complementary to RT-PCR and chest CT studies. Patients with fever, cough, myalgia, and other symptoms can now have initial routine blood tests assessed by our diagnostic tool. All patients with a positive COVID-19 prediction would then undergo standard RT-PCR studies to confirm the diagnosis. We believe that our results present a significant contribution to improvements in COVID-19 diagnosis.