Consistency of Learned Sparse Grid Quadrature Rules using NeuralODEs

This paper provides a proof of the consistency of sparse grid quadrature for numerical integration of high dimensional distributions. In a first step, a transport map is learned that normalizes the distribution to a noise distribution on the unit cube. This step is built on the statistical learning theory of neural ordinary differential equations, which has been established recently. Secondly, the composition of the generative map with the quantity of interest is integrated numerically using the Clenshaw-Curtis sparse grid quadrature. A decomposition of the total numerical error in quadrature error and statistical error is provided. As main result it is proven in the framework of empirical risk minimization that all error terms can be controlled in the sense of PAC (probably approximately correct) learning and with high probability the numerical integral approximates the theoretical value up to an arbitrary small error in the limit where the data set size is growing and the network capacity is increased adaptively.

Towards Reliable Detection of Empty Space: Conditional Marked Point Processes for Object Detection

Deep neural networks have set the state-of-the-art in computer vision tasks such as bounding box detection and semantic segmentation. Object detectors and segmentation models assign confidence scores to predictions, reflecting the model's uncertainty in object detection or pixel-wise classification. However, these confidence estimates are often miscalibrated, as their architectures and loss functions are tailored to task performance rather than probabilistic foundation. Even with well calibrated predictions, object detectors fail to quantify uncertainty outside detected bounding boxes, i.e., the model does not make a probability assessment of whether an area without detected objects is truly free of obstacles. This poses a safety risk in applications such as automated driving, where uncertainty in empty areas remains unexplored. In this work, we propose an object detection model grounded in spatial statistics. Bounding box data matches realizations of a marked point process, commonly used to describe the probabilistic occurrence of spatial point events identified as bounding box centers, where marks are used to describe the spatial extension of bounding boxes and classes. Our statistical framework enables a likelihood-based training and provides well-defined confidence estimates for whether a region is drivable, i.e., free of objects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through calibration assessments and evaluation of performance.

Numerical and statistical analysis of NeuralODE with Runge-Kutta time integration

NeuralODE is one example for generative machine learning based on the push forward of a simple source measure with a bijective mapping, which in the case of NeuralODE is given by the flow of a ordinary differential equation. Using Liouville's formula, the log-density of the push forward measure is easy to compute and thus NeuralODE can be trained based on the maximum Likelihood method such that the Kulback-Leibler divergence between the push forward through the flow map and the target measure generating the data becomes small. In this work, we give a detailed account on the consistency of Maximum Likelihood based empirical risk minimization for a generic class of target measures. In contrast to prior work, we do not only consider the statistical learning theory, but also give a detailed numerical analysis of the NeuralODE algorithm based on the 2nd order Runge-Kutta (RK) time integration. Using the universal approximation theory for deep ReQU networks, the stability and convergence rated for the RK scheme as well as metric entropy and concentration inequalities, we are able to prove that NeuralODE is a probably approximately correct (PAC) learning algorithm.