The Ethical Decision Head: Operationalizing Normative Ethics in Autonomous Vehicles via Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback

As autonomous vehicles (AVs) approach Level 4 and Level 5 operational capability [SAE International, 2018], their on- board decision systems must handle not only safety-critical locomotion but also their subsequent moral weight. This paper details the Ethical Decision Head (EDH), a deep re- inforcement learning (RL) framework that encodes ethical reasoning as a differentiable reward signal, enabling a pol- icy gradient agent to learn morally-aligned driving behavior in scenarios whose state representation is aligned with the CARLA simulation environment [Dosovitskiy et al., 2017]. Two normative frameworks are instantiated and evaluated: a Utilitarian framework minimizing total casualties and a Kan- tian framework enforcing course maintenance as a categori- cal imperative. The EDH is trained via Proximal Policy Op- timization (PPO) [Schulman et al., 2017] against a Bradley- Terry reward model [Bradley and Terry, 1952] learned from pairwise human preference annotations over 200 collision- imminent scenarios. Results reveal an asymmetry in the learnability of normative ethical frameworks under human su- pervision. The Kantian condition, which reduces to a con- stant prediction task under the codebook, serves as a pipeline control: it confirms training stability and rules out infrastruc- ture failure as an explanation for the utilitarian result. The Utilitarian agent learned something more unsettling: human raters rewarded self-sacrifice over casualty minimization, and the model learned that preference faithfully. This divergence between what humans prescribe in theory and what they re- ward in practice suggests that RLHF does not learn ethics as philosophers define it, but as humans live it.

LSTM-Based Detection of Structural Breaks in Property Insurance Loss Reserving: A Climate-Informed Approach

Accurate loss reserving is foundational to insurer solvency, yet accelerating climate driven catastrophes systematically violate the stability assumptions on which traditional actuarial methods depend. This white paper presents a research program testing whether Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks can detect and adapt to these structural breaks faster and more accurately than Chain Ladder, Bornhuetter Ferguson, and Cape Cod methods. Using 15 plus years of regulatory development triangle data from Florida and Louisiana, enriched with NOAA hurricane intensity indices and sea surface temperatures, we hypothesize a targeted improvement of 15, 20% in reserve accuracy for catastrophe exposed years, a threshold grounded both in the prior neural network reserving literature and in the formal convergence results developed here. Beyond empirical validation, we develop a theoretical framework grounding LSTM structural break detection in probabilistic terms, providing formal performance guarantees that compensate for the limited number of catastrophe events in the test period. We document the research design, methodology, expected contributions, and a candid assessment of limitations.

Stance Detection in Prediction Markets: Addressing Imbalanced Trader Commentary via Counterfactual Augmentation and Market Context

Prediction markets such as Polymarket aggregate crowd beliefs into real-time probability estimates, and the comments traders post beneath each market contain rich directional stance signals that prices alone cannot capture. This work introduces the first stance detection study applied to prediction market commentary, a domain characterized by extreme brevity, trader- specific vernacular, and severe class imbalance (only 8.7% of comments oppose the market outcome). RoBERTa-base is fine-tuned across a 4 x 3 ablation: four input configurations ({2- class, 3-class} x {with/without market context}) and three augmentation conditions (baseline, 50% synthetic, 100% synthetic). Synthetic minority-class samples are generated via LLM-driven Pro -> Anti counterfactual flips using the Anthropic API. Results show that (1) market context is the single most impactful factor, raising 3-class Anti recall from 0.10 to 0.45; (2) counterfactual augmentation is conditionally effective, improving Anti F1 in weak configurations (0.10 -> 0.24) while degrading strong ones (2-class-ctx macro F1: 0.68 -> 0.50 at full dose); and (3) 50% augmentation is the optimal dose, with 100% consistently hurting performance. Attention-based interpretability analysis provides mechanistic support for all three findings.