In-Training Multicalibrated Survival Analysis for Healthcare via Constrained Optimization

Survival analysis is an important problem in healthcare because it models the relationship between an individual's covariates and the onset time of an event of interest (e.g., death). It is important for survival models to be well-calibrated (i.e., for their predicted probabilities to be close to ground-truth probabilities) because badly calibrated systems can result in erroneous clinical decisions. Existing survival models are typically calibrated at the population level only, and thus run the risk of being poorly calibrated for one or more minority subpopulations. We propose a model called GRADUATE that achieves multicalibration by ensuring that all subpopulations are well-calibrated too. GRADUATE frames multicalibration as a constrained optimization problem, and optimizes both calibration and discrimination in-training to achieve a good balance between them. We mathematically prove that the optimization method used yields a solution that is both near-optimal and feasible with high probability. Empirical comparisons against state-of-the-art baselines on real-world clinical datasets demonstrate GRADUATE's efficacy. In a detailed analysis, we elucidate the shortcomings of the baselines vis-a-vis GRADUATE's strengths.

Interpretable Predictive Models for Healthcare via Rational Logistic Regression

The healthcare sector has experienced a rapid accumulation of digital data recently, especially in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). EHRs constitute a precious resource that IS researchers could utilize for clinical applications (e.g., morbidity prediction). Deep learning seems like the obvious choice to exploit this surfeit of data. However, numerous studies have shown that deep learning does not enjoy the same kind of success on EHR data as it has in other domains; simple models like logistic regression are frequently as good as sophisticated deep learning ones. Inspired by this observation, we develop a novel model called rational logistic regression (RLR) that has standard logistic regression (LR) as its special case (and thus inherits LR's inductive bias that aligns with EHR data). RLR has rational series as its theoretical underpinnings, works on longitudinal time-series data, and learns interpretable patterns. Empirical comparisons on real-world clinical tasks demonstrate RLR's efficacy.