Automatic Calibration Framework of Agent-Based Models for Dynamic and Heterogeneous Parameters

Agent-based models (ABMs) highlight the importance of simulation validation, such as qualitative face validation and quantitative empirical validation. In particular, we focused on quantitative validation by adjusting simulation input parameters of the ABM. This study introduces an automatic calibration framework that combines the suggested dynamic and heterogeneous calibration methods. Specifically, the dynamic calibration fits the simulation results to the real-world data by automatically capturing suitable simulation time to adjust the simulation parameters. Meanwhile, the heterogeneous calibration reduces the distributional discrepancy between individuals in the simulation and the real world by adjusting agent related parameters cluster-wisely.

Automatic Calibration of Dynamic and Heterogeneous Parameters in Agent-based Model

While simulations have been utilized in diverse domains, such as urban growth modeling, market dynamics modeling, etc; some of these applications may require validations based upon some real-world observations modeled in the simulation, as well. This validation has been categorized into either qualitative face-validation or quantitative empirical validation, but as the importance and the accumulation of data grows, the importance of the quantitative validation has been highlighted in the recent studies, i.e. digital twin. The key component of quantitative validation is finding a calibrated set of parameters to regenerate the real-world observations with simulation models. While this parameter calibration has been fixed throughout a simulation execution, this paper expands the static parameter calibration in two dimensions: dynamic calibration and heterogeneous calibration. First, dynamic calibration changes the parameter values over the simulation period by reflecting the simulation output trend. Second, heterogeneous calibration changes the parameter values per simulated entity clusters by considering the similarities of entity states. We experimented the suggested calibrations on one hypothetical case and another real-world case. As a hypothetical scenario, we use the Wealth Distribution Model to illustrate how our calibration works. As a real-world scenario, we selected Real Estate Market Model because of three reasons. First, the models have heterogeneous entities as being agent-based models; second, they are economic models with real-world trends over time; and third, they are applicable to the real-world scenarios where we can gather validation data.