AeroCast: Probabilistic 3D Trajectory Prediction for Non-Cooperative Aerial Obstacles via Transformer-MDN Architecture

Autonomous aerial vehicles operating in shared airspace must predict the future positions of non-cooperative obstacles to plan evasive maneuvers before a collision becomes unavoidable. Unlike cooperative systems that share intent, non-cooperative obstacles such as birds, uncontrolled drones, or debris exhibit multi-modal motion that deterministic predictors cannot adequately represent. Existing methods either rely on recurrent encoders that propagate temporal information sequentially, limiting their ability to capture long-range kinematic precursors of maneuver initiation, or produce point forecasts that provide no distributional information to downstream planners. This paper presents AeroCast, a probabilistic trajectory prediction framework that combines a Transformer encoder with a Mixture Density Network output head to predict per-timestep Gaussian mixture distributions over future three-dimensional displacements. A translation-invariant consecutive displacement encoding and a calibration-oriented training objective address the input design and mode-degeneracy challenges specific to mixture-based aerial trajectory prediction. On a hybrid real-and-synthetic quadrotor corpus spanning nine motion categories, AeroCast reduces Average Displacement Error and Final Displacement Error by approximately 50% relative to the baselines over a five-second horizon, and achieves the lowest negative log-likelihood and Continuous Ranked Probability Score among all compared methods. Ablation analysis identifies velocity input and model capacity as the primary contributors to prediction quality, and positional encoding as essential for long-horizon trajectory coherence. AeroCast inference completes in 0.1ms per sample, compatible with real-time onboard deployment at 100Hz.

NanoBench: A Multi-Task Benchmark Dataset for Nano-Quadrotor System Identification, Control, and State Estimation

Existing aerial-robotics benchmarks target vehicles from hundreds of grams to several kilograms and typically expose only high-level state data. They omit the actuator-level signals required to study nano-scale quadrotors, where low-Reynolds number aerodynamics, coreless DC motor nonlinearities, and severe computational constraints invalidate models and controllers developed for larger vehicles. We introduce NanoBench, an open-source multi-task benchmark collected on the commercially available Crazyflie 2.1 nano-quadrotor (takeoff weight 27 g) in a Vicon motion capture arena. The dataset contains over 170 flight trajectories spanning hover, multi-frequency excitation, standard tracking, and aggressive maneuvers across multiple speed regimes. Each trajectory provides synchronized Vicon ground truth, raw IMU data, onboard extended Kalman filter estimates, PID controller internals, and motor PWM commands at 100 Hz, alongside battery telemetry at 10 Hz, aligned with sub-0.5 ms consistency. NanoBench defines standardized evaluation protocols, train/test splits, and open-source baselines for three tasks: nonlinear system identification, closed-loop controller benchmarking, and onboard state estimation assessment. To our knowledge, it is the first public dataset to jointly provide actuator commands, controller internals, and estimator outputs with millimeter-accurate ground truth on a commercially available nano-scale aerial platform.