Machine Learning Solar Wind Driving Magnetospheric Convection in Tail Lobes

To quantitatively study the driving mechanisms of magnetospheric convection in the magnetotail lobes on a global scale, we utilize data from the ARTEMIS spacecraft in the deep tail and the Cluster spacecraft in the near tail. Previous work demonstrated that, in the lobes near the Moon, we can estimate the convection by utilizing ARTEMIS measurements of lunar ions velocity. In this paper, we analyze these datasets with machine learning models to determine what upstream factors drive the lobe convection in different magnetotail regions and thereby understand the mechanisms that control the dynamics of the tail lobes. Our results show that the correlations between the predicted and test convection velocities for the machine learning models (>0.75) are much better than those of the multiple linear regression model (~ 0.23 - 0.43). The systematic analysis reveals that the IMF and magnetospheric activity play an important role in influencing plasma convection in the global magnetotail lobes.

Prediction of soft proton intensities in the near-Earth space using machine learning

The spatial distribution of energetic protons contributes towards the understanding of magnetospheric dynamics. Based upon 17 years of the Cluster/RAPID observations, we have derived machine learning-based models to predict the proton intensities at energies from 28 to 1,885 keV in the 3D terrestrial magnetosphere at radial distances between 6 and 22 RE. We used the satellite location and indices for solar, solar wind and geomagnetic activity as predictors. The results demonstrate that the neural network (multi-layer perceptron regressor) outperforms baseline models based on the k-Nearest Neighbors and historical binning on average by ~80% and ~33\%, respectively. The average correlation between the observed and predicted data is about 56%, which is reasonable in light of the complex dynamics of fast-moving energetic protons in the magnetosphere. In addition to a quantitative analysis of the prediction results, we also investigate parameter importance in our model. The most decisive parameters for predicting proton intensities are related to the location: ZGSE direction and the radial distance. Among the activity indices, the solar wind dynamic pressure is the most important. The results have a direct practical application, for instance, for assessing the contamination particle background in the X-Ray telescopes for X-ray astronomy orbiting above the radiation belts. To foster reproducible research and to enable the community to build upon our work we publish our complete code, the data, as well as weights of trained models. Further description can be found in the GitHub project at https://github.com/Tanveer81/deep_horizon.