How Many Counterfactuals Does It Take? Probing VLM Hallucinations Through Circuits and Causal Effects

Visual Language Models (VLMs) are known to produce hallucinated predictions that are not grounded in visual evidence, yet existing approaches lack a principled understanding of how robust such predictions are under counterfactual perturbations. In this work, we study the sample complexity of counterfactual robustness for hallucinated outputs in VLMs. We define a causal influence metric based on log-probability differences between factual, counterfactual, and activation-patched runs, and use it to characterize the stability of hallucinated predictions. By leveraging circuit discovery techniques (CD-T), we identify model components responsible for these predictions and track their activation differences across counterfactual samples. We then derive empirical bounds on the minimum number of counterfactual samples m required to reliably detect instability in hallucinated outputs, using concentration inequalities and variance estimates of the causal influence distribution.

Geometry of Human Perceptual Domains Emerges Transiently in LLM Representations

While large language models (LLMs) are trained purely on textual data, prior work has shown that their internal representations can exhibit rich geometric structure in embedding space. Building on this line of work, we investigate whether such structure is similar to human perceptual organisation across different domains (e.g., color, pitch, emotion, and taste). Specifically, we study the layer-wise emergence of intrinsic geometrical structure corresponding to perceptual modalities within the residual streams of multiple open-weight transformer architectures. Our results reveal three key findings. First, we observe the emergence of layer-wise geometric structure across multiple perceptual domains, despite the absence of any direct perceptual supervision during training. Second, these perceptual domains exhibit distinct emergence profiles, with both geometric structure and its alignment with human baselines following domain- and model-specific trajectories across depth. Third, this emergence follows a consistent representational trajectory: geometry is weak or diffuse in early layers, becomes progressively organised in intermediate layers, and is attenuated in later layers, suggesting that perceptual geometry arises transiently as part of the model's internal transformation pipeline. This provides new insight into how and where human-like perceptual geometry arises in LLMs, offering a principled pathway for mechanistic analysis of internal representations.