An Investigation of Why Overparameterization Exacerbates Spurious Correlations

We study why overparameterization -- increasing model size well beyond the point of zero training error -- can hurt test error on minority groups despite improving average test error when there are spurious correlations in the data. Through simulations and experiments on two image datasets, we identify two key properties of the training data that drive this behavior: the proportions of majority versus minority groups, and the signal-to-noise ratio of the spurious correlations. We then analyze a linear setting and show theoretically how the inductive bias of models towards "memorizing" fewer examples can cause overparameterization to hurt. Our analysis leads to a counterintuitive approach of subsampling the majority group, which empirically achieves low minority error in the overparameterized regime, even though the standard approach of upweighting the minority fails. Overall, our results suggest a tension between using overparameterized models versus using all the training data for achieving low worst-group error.

Distributionally Robust Neural Networks for Group Shifts: On the Importance of Regularization for Worst-Case Generalization

Overparameterized neural networks can be highly accurate on average on an i.i.d. test set yet consistently fail on atypical groups of the data (e.g., by learning spurious correlations that hold on average but not in such groups). Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) allows us to learn models that instead minimize the worst-case training loss over a set of pre-defined groups. However, we find that naively applying group DRO to overparameterized neural networks fails: these models can perfectly fit the training data, and any model with vanishing average training loss also already has vanishing worst-case training loss. Instead, their poor worst-case performance arises from poor generalization on some groups. By coupling group DRO models with increased regularization---stronger-than-typical $\ell_2$ regularization or early stopping---we achieve substantially higher worst-group accuracies, with 10-40 percentage point improvements on a natural language inference task and two image tasks, while maintaining high average accuracies. Our results suggest that regularization is critical for worst-group generalization in the overparameterized regime, even if it is not needed for average generalization. Finally, we introduce and give convergence guarantees for a stochastic optimizer for the group DRO setting, underpinning the empirical study above.

Multi-Resolution Weak Supervision for Sequential Data

Since manually labeling training data is slow and expensive, recent industrial and scientific research efforts have turned to weaker or noisier forms of supervision sources. However, existing weak supervision approaches fail to model multi-resolution sources for sequential data, like video, that can assign labels to individual elements or collections of elements in a sequence. A key challenge in weak supervision is estimating the unknown accuracies and correlations of these sources without using labeled data. Multi-resolution sources exacerbate this challenge due to complex correlations and sample complexity that scales in the length of the sequence. We propose Dugong, the first framework to model multi-resolution weak supervision sources with complex correlations to assign probabilistic labels to training data. Theoretically, we prove that Dugong, under mild conditions, can uniquely recover the unobserved accuracy and correlation parameters and use parameter sharing to improve sample complexity. Our method assigns clinician-validated labels to population-scale biomedical video repositories, helping outperform traditional supervision by 36.8 F1 points and addressing a key use case where machine learning has been severely limited by the lack of expert labeled data. On average, Dugong improves over traditional supervision by 16.0 F1 points and existing weak supervision approaches by 24.2 F1 points across several video and sensor classification tasks.

Distributionally Robust Language Modeling

Language models are generally trained on data spanning a wide range of topics (e.g., news, reviews, fiction), but they might be applied to an a priori unknown target distribution (e.g., restaurant reviews). In this paper, we first show that training on text outside the test distribution can degrade test performance when using standard maximum likelihood (MLE) training. To remedy this without the knowledge of the test distribution, we propose an approach which trains a model that performs well over a wide range of potential test distributions. In particular, we derive a new distributionally robust optimization (DRO) procedure which minimizes the loss of the model over the worst-case mixture of topics with sufficient overlap with the training distribution. Our approach, called topic conditional value at risk (topic CVaR), obtains a 5.5 point perplexity reduction over MLE when the language models are trained on a mixture of Yelp reviews and news and tested only on reviews.