Impacts of Students Academic Performance Trajectories on Final Academic Success

Many studies in the field of education analytics have identified student grade point averages (GPA) as an important indicator and predictor of students' final academic outcomes (graduate or halt). And while semester-to-semester fluctuations in GPA are considered normal, significant changes in academic performance may warrant more thorough investigation and consideration, particularly with regards to final academic outcomes. However, such an approach is challenging due to the difficulties of representing complex academic trajectories over an academic career. In this study, we apply a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to provide a standard and intuitive classification over students' academic-performance levels, which leads to a compact representation of academic-performance trajectories. Next, we explore the relationship between different academic-performance trajectories and their correspondence to final academic success. Based on student transcript data from University of Central Florida, our proposed HMM is trained using sequences of students' course grades for each semester. Through the HMM, our analysis follows the expected finding that higher academic performance levels correlate with lower halt rates. However, in this paper, we identify that there exist many scenarios in which both improving or worsening academic-performance trajectories actually correlate to higher graduation rates. This counter-intuitive finding is made possible through the proposed and developed HMM model.

Quantifying the relationship between student enrollment patterns and student performance

College students are enrolled at each semester with either part time or full time status. While most of the students keep an overall constant enrollment status during their education period, some of them may frequently change their status between full time and part time from one semester to the next. The goal of this research is to exploit the historic patterns to estimate and categorize students$'$ strategy in three different groups of part time, full time and mixed, investigate the educational features of each group and compare their performance. Enrollment strategy refers to the student$'$s mindset for enrollment plan and in one way can be captured from the student$'$s historic enrollment status. Data is collected from the University of Central Florida from 2008 to 2017 and Hidden Markov Model is applied to identify different types of student strategy. Results show that students with Mixed Enrollment Strategy (MES) have features (ex. time to graduation and graduation and halt enrollment ratio) and performances (ex. cumulative GPA) relatively between students with Full time Enrollment Strategy (FES) and students with Part time Enrollment Strategy (PES).