Conformalised imprecise inference for robust extrapolation under limited data

Recent advances in uncertainty quantification increasingly emphasise the distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning, motivating the need for more unified frameworks. However, despite much progress in producing reliable predictions, existing methods often lack rigorous guarantees when generalising beyond the training domain. We propose a conformalised imprecise inference framework for robust extrapolation, which is model-agnostic and augments predictive models with imprecision and distance awareness. The proposed approach yields imprecise predictions (probability boxes) that remain valid under distributional shift, maintaining coverage while adaptively expanding uncertainty in extrapolation regimes. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate improved robustness and reliable coverage compared to standard probabilistic approaches, particularly under limited data.

Logistic Regression Through the Veil of Imprecise Data

Logistic regression is an important statistical tool for assessing the probability of an outcome based upon some predictive variables. Standard methods can only deal with precisely known data, however many datasets have uncertainties which traditional methods either reduce to a single point or completely disregarded. In this paper we show that it is possible to include these uncertainties by considering an imprecise logistic regression model using the set of possible models that can be obtained from values from within the intervals. This has the advantage of clearly expressing the epistemic uncertainty removed by traditional methods.