MetaboNet-Bench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes

Glucose forecasting algorithms are an important aspect of glycemic control management in type 1 diabetes. So far, the research community has developed numerous algorithms and models for forecasting. However, it is well-recognized that the lack of standardized model performance evaluation benchmarks makes fair comparison difficult and hinders further innovation, and thus benchmark standardization is in urgent need. Furthermore, many published glucose forecasting algorithms are limited to CGM data alone, ignoring other multimodal signals such as insulin dosing and carbohydrate intake. Here, we introduce MetaboNet-Bench, a benchmark for multimodal glucose forecasting for patients with type 1 diabetes that provides an extensible open-source evaluation framework for comparison of glucose forecasting algorithms that leverage glucose, insulin, and carbohydrate data. We then demonstrate its utility by benchmarking several recently published glucose forecasting models and a custom multimodal time-series model, representing different model architectures. The results show that the benefit of adding data modalities is conditioned on the complexity of the model and that incorporating more clinical metrics helps identify meaningful gaps to fill for future research.

Personalized Understanding of Blood Glucose Dynamics via Mobile Sensor Data

Continuous Blood Glucose (CGM) monitors have revolutionized the ability of diabetics to manage their blood glucose, and paved the way for artificial pancreas systems. In this paper we augment CGM data with sensor input collected by a smart phone and use it to provide analytical tools for patients and clinicians. We collected GPS data, activity classifications, and blood glucose data with a custom iOS application over a 9 month period from a single free-living type-1 diabetic patient. This data set is novel in terms of it's size, the inclusion of GPS data, and the fact that it was collected non-intrusively from a free-living patient. We describe a method to measure the occurrence of lifestyle \textit{events} based on GPS and activity data, and show that they can capture instances of food consumption and are therefore correlated to changes in blood glucose. Finally, we incorporate these event representations into our system to create useful visualizations and notifications to aid patients in managing their diabetes.

Anomaly Detection and Automated Labeling for Voter Registration File Changes

Voter eligibility in United States elections is determined by a patchwork of state databases containing information about which citizens are eligible to vote. Administrators at the state and local level are faced with the exceedingly difficult task of ensuring that each of their jurisdictions is properly managed, while also monitoring for improper modifications to the database. Monitoring changes to Voter Registration Files (VRFs) is crucial, given that a malicious actor wishing to disrupt the democratic process in the US would be well-advised to manipulate the contents of these files in order to achieve their goals. In 2020, we saw election officials perform admirably when faced with administering one of the most contentious elections in US history, but much work remains to secure and monitor the election systems Americans rely on. Using data created by comparing snapshots taken of VRFs over time, we present a set of methods that make use of machine learning to ease the burden on analysts and administrators in protecting voter rolls. We first evaluate the effectiveness of multiple unsupervised anomaly detection methods in detecting VRF modifications by modeling anomalous changes as sparse additive noise. In this setting we determine that statistical models comparing administrative districts within a short time span and non-negative matrix factorization are most effective for surfacing anomalous events for review. These methods were deployed during 2019-2020 in our organization's monitoring system and were used in collaboration with the office of the Iowa Secretary of State. Additionally, we propose a newly deployed model which uses historical and demographic metadata to label the likely root cause of database modifications. We hope to use this model to predict which modifications have known causes and therefore better identify potentially anomalous modifications.