A Hybrid CNN-LSTM Intrusion Detection Framework for Cybersecurity in Smart Renewable Energy Grids

The accelerated digitalization of renewable energy smart grids through IoT sensors, AMI, and SCADA systems has significantly expanded the attack surface for sophisticated cyberattacks, FDI attacks that stealthily distort state estimation and DoS/DDoS attacks that flood communication channels. Current IDS, however, exhibit three inherent limitations: inadequate modeling of the temporal progression of multi-step attacks, degraded scalability under extremely skewed class distributions of standard benchmark datasets, and restricted generalization across heterogeneous network environments. In this study, we present a Hybrid CNN-LSTM IDS that jointly exploits CNN-based spatial feature extraction and LSTM-based temporal sequence modeling, enabling the detection of instantaneous volumetric anomalies and gradually evolving low and slow-attack campaigns in real time. The model was trained using a seven-step preprocessing workflow comprising missing-value imputation, min-max normalization, one-hot encoding, SMOTE class balancing, mutual-information feature selection, causal temporal sequence construction (T=10), and stratified partitioning. LSTM (96.1%), Random Forest (93.5%), SVM (91.2%) and KNN (89.7%); in NSL-KDD, it reaches 98.2% precision versus 96.4% (LSTM), 95.2% (CNN), 92.7% (Random Forest) and 90.8% (SVM), with margins of 2-9 percentage points in all measures. An ablation analysis identified SMOTE balancing as the most influential design choice (-3.7~pp F1 without it). The model achieves a real-time inference throughput of 27,800 flows/s on GPU and 0.082 ms/sample CPU latency in FP32,, with INT8 quantization providing an additional 3.1 x speedup at 0.3% accuracy loss, confirming deployment feasibility on resource-constrained IEDs with <128MB memory and establishing a deployable deep-learning framework for securing next-generation renewable energy smart grid infrastructure.

Interpretable Physics-Informed Load Forecasting for U.S. Grid Resilience: SHAP-Guided Ensemble Validation in Hybrid Deep Learning Under Extreme Weather

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is a cornerstone of U.S. grid reliability; however, prevailing deep learning models remain opaque, limiting operator trust during extreme weather. A unified, interpretable, physics-informed ensemble framework is proposed, integrating a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) branch for local feature extraction and a Transformer branch for long-range dependency modeling; the branches are fused through a validation-optimized weighted ensemble and regularized by a physics-informed loss derived from the piecewise parabolic temperature-demand relationship of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Post-hoc interpretability is provided through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) with the DeepExplainer backend, yielding global and event-level attributions. Using eight years of ERCOT hourly load data (2018-2025) fused with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) records from three Texas stations, the framework achieves 713 MW MAE, 812 MW RMSE, and 1.18% MAPE on the test window. For Hampel-flagged extreme events, MAPE falls by 20.7% relative to its Transformer branch and by 40.5% relative to its CNN branch; an ablation confirms that the parabolic and ramp constraints drive a 14.7% RMSE reduction. SHAP analysis reveals a regime shift: temperature dominates under normal operation, whereas wind speed and precipitation become more influential during cold fronts and heatwaves.

Bayesian Transformer for Probabilistic Load Forecasting in Smart Grids

The reliable operation of modern power grids requires probabilistic load forecasts with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, existing deep learning models produce overconfident point predictions that fail catastrophically under extreme weather distributional shifts. This study proposes a Bayesian Transformer (BT) framework that integrates three complementary uncertainty mechanisms into a PatchTST backbone: Monte Carlo Dropout for epistemic parameter uncertainty, variational feed-forward layers with log-uniform weight priors, and stochastic attention with learnable Gaussian noise perturbations on pre-softmax logits, representing, to the best of our knowledge, the first application of Bayesian attention to probabilistic load forecasting. A seven-level multi-quantile pinball-loss prediction head and post-training isotonic regression calibration produce sharp, near-nominally covered prediction intervals. Evaluation of five grid datasets (PJM, ERCOT, ENTSO-E Germany, France, and Great Britain) augmented with NOAA covariates across 24, 48, and 168-hour horizons demonstrates state-of-the-art performance. On the primary benchmark (PJM, H=24h), BT achieves a CRPS of 0.0289, improving 7.4% over Deep Ensembles and 29.9% over the deterministic LSTM, with 90.4% PICP at the 90% nominal level and the narrowest prediction intervals (4,960 MW) among all probabilistic baselines. During heat-wave and cold snap events, BT maintained 89.6% and 90.1% PICP respectively, versus 64.7% and 67.2% for the deterministic LSTM, confirming that Bayesian epistemic uncertainty naturally widens intervals for out-of-distribution inputs. Calibration remained stable across all horizons (89.8-90.4% PICP), while ablation confirmed that each component contributed a distinct value. The calibrated outputs directly support risk-based reserve sizing, stochastic unit commitment, and demand response activation.