XGBoost Forecasting of NEPSE Index Log Returns with Walk Forward Validation

This study develops a robust machine learning framework for one-step-ahead forecasting of daily log-returns in the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) Index using the XGBoost regressor. A comprehensive feature set is engineered, including lagged log-returns (up to 30 days) and established technical indicators such as short- and medium-term rolling volatility measures and the 14-period Relative Strength Index. Hyperparameter optimization is performed using Optuna with time-series cross-validation on the initial training segment. Out-of-sample performance is rigorously assessed via walk-forward validation under both expanding and fixed-length rolling window schemes across multiple lag configurations, simulating real-world deployment and avoiding lookahead bias. Predictive accuracy is evaluated using root mean squared error, mean absolute error, coefficient of determination (R-squared), and directional accuracy on both log-returns and reconstructed closing prices. Empirical results show that the optimal configuration, an expanding window with 20 lags, outperforms tuned ARIMA and Ridge regression benchmarks, achieving the lowest log-return RMSE (0.013450) and MAE (0.009814) alongside a directional accuracy of 65.15%. While the R-squared remains modest, consistent with the noisy nature of financial returns, primary emphasis is placed on relative error reduction and directional prediction. Feature importance analysis and visual inspection further enhance interpretability. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of gradient boosting ensembles in modeling nonlinear dynamics in volatile emerging market time series and establish a reproducible benchmark for NEPSE Index forecasting.

Secure, Verifiable, and Scalable Multi-Client Data Sharing via Consensus-Based Privacy-Preserving Data Distribution

We propose the Consensus-Based Privacy-Preserving Data Distribution (CPPDD) framework, a lightweight and post-setup autonomous protocol for secure multi-client data aggregation. The framework enforces unanimous-release confidentiality through a dual-layer protection mechanism that combines per-client affine masking with priority-driven sequential consensus locking. Decentralized integrity is verified via step (sigma_S) and data (sigma_D) checksums, facilitating autonomous malicious deviation detection and atomic abort without requiring persistent coordination. The design supports scalar, vector, and matrix payloads with O(N*D) computation and communication complexity, optional edge-server offloading, and resistance to collusion under N-1 corruptions. Formal analysis proves correctness, Consensus-Dependent Integrity and Fairness (CDIF) with overwhelming-probability abort on deviation, and IND-CPA security assuming a pseudorandom function family. Empirical evaluations on MNIST-derived vectors demonstrate linear scalability up to N = 500 with sub-millisecond per-client computation times. The framework achieves 100% malicious deviation detection, exact data recovery, and three-to-four orders of magnitude lower FLOPs compared to MPC and HE baselines. CPPDD enables atomic collaboration in secure voting, consortium federated learning, blockchain escrows, and geo-information capacity building, addressing critical gaps in scalability, trust minimization, and verifiable multi-party computation for regulated and resource-constrained environments.

Devanagari Digit Recognition using Quantum Machine Learning

Handwritten digit recognition in regional scripts, such as Devanagari, is crucial for multilingual document digitization, educational tools, and the preservation of cultural heritage. The script's complex structure and limited annotated datasets pose significant challenges to conventional models. This paper introduces the first hybrid quantum-classical architecture for Devanagari handwritten digit recognition, combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) for spatial feature extraction with a 10-qubit variational quantum circuit (VQC) for quantum-enhanced classification. Trained and evaluated on the Devanagari Handwritten Character Dataset (DHCD), the proposed model achieves a state-of-the-art test accuracy for quantum implementation of 99.80% and a test loss of 0.2893, with an average per-class F1-score of 0.9980. Compared to equivalent classical CNNs, our model demonstrates superior accuracy with significantly fewer parameters and enhanced robustness. By leveraging quantum principles such as superposition and entanglement, this work establishes a novel benchmark for regional script recognition, highlighting the promise of quantum machine learning (QML) in real-world, low-resource language settings.