Completion vs Optimality: Policy Gradient in Long-Horizon Cumulative-Damage Problems

Long-horizon decision problems with cumulative damage couple locally attractive actions to globally adverse outcomes. We identify two orthogonal failure modes for policy-gradient methods on this class and propose a decomposition that separates them: \emph{completion} (reaching the terminal horizon rather than exiting via an implicit terminal constraint) and \emph{optimality} (matching the dynamic-programming reference given completion). Under PPO with a linear soft penalty, granting horizon access alone reduces the completion rate: the penalty's equilibrium drives the dominant-activity share to zero, while action-space restriction combined with horizon access achieves completion but leaves an optimality gap ($ΔM_{\text{final}} = 0.271$) that we trace to first-phase greedy commitment at the damage origin. We derive four testable predictions and evaluate them in two separately calibrated environments that share the same abstract structure but differ in domain, horizon, activity set, and calibration data: a 49-step bricklayer career and a 20-season NBA power-forward career. All four predictions replicate qualitatively. The horizon-invariance prediction is met at three of four tested horizons, with the exception at $H = 15$ consistent with the $H^*$ boundary ($H^* \in [6, 14]$ under the NBA parameters).

Evolving Afferent Architectures: Biologically-inspired Models for Damage-Avoidance Learning

We introduce Afferent Learning, a framework that produces Computational Afferent Traces (CATs) as adaptive, internal risk signals for damage-avoidance learning. Inspired by biological systems, the framework uses a two-level architecture: evolutionary optimization (outer loop) discovers afferent sensing architectures that enable effective policy learning, while reinforcement learning (inner loop) trains damage-avoidance policies using these signals. This formalizes afferent sensing as providing an inductive bias for efficient learning: architectures are selected based on their ability to enable effective learning (rather than directly minimizing damage). We provide theoretical convergence guarantees under smoothness and bounded-noise assumptions. We illustrate the general approach in the challenging context of biomechanical digital twins operating over long time horizons (multiple decades of the life-course). Here, we find that CAT-based evolved architectures achieve significantly higher efficiency and better age-robustness than hand-designed baselines, enabling policies that exhibit age-dependent behavioral adaptation (23% reduction in high-risk actions). Ablation studies validate CAT signals, evolution, and predictive discrepancy as essential. We release code and data for reproducibility.