An information theoretic limit to data amplification

In recent years generative artificial intelligence has been used to create data to support science analysis. For example, Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been trained using Monte Carlo simulated input and then used to generate data for the same problem. This has the advantage that a GAN creates data in a significantly reduced computing time. N training events for a GAN can result in GN generated events with the gain factor, G, being more than one. This appears to violate the principle that one cannot get information for free. This is not the only way to amplify data so this process will be referred to as data amplification which is studied using information theoretic concepts. It is shown that a gain of greater than one is possible whilst keeping the information content of the data unchanged. This leads to a mathematical bound which only depends on the number of generated and training events. This study determines conditions on both the underlying and reconstructed probability distributions to ensure this bound. In particular, the resolution of variables in amplified data is not improved by the process but the increase in sample size can still improve statistical significance. The bound is confirmed using computer simulation and analysis of GAN generated data from the literature.

Limits to classification performance by relating Kullback-Leibler divergence to Cohen's Kappa

The performance of machine learning classification algorithms are evaluated by estimating metrics, often from the confusion matrix, using training data and cross-validation. However, these do not prove that the best possible performance has been achieved. Fundamental limits to error rates can be estimated using information distance measures. To this end, the confusion matrix has been formulated to comply with the Chernoff-Stein Lemma. This links the error rates to the Kullback-Leibler divergences between the probability density functions describing the two classes. This leads to a key result that relates Cohen's Kappa to the Resistor Average Distance which is the parallel resistor combination of the two Kullback-Leibler divergences. The Resistor Average Distance has units of bits and is estimated from the same training data used by the classification algorithm, using kNN estimates of the KullBack-Leibler divergences. The classification algorithm gives the confusion matrix and Kappa. Theory and methods are discussed in detail and then applied to Monte Carlo data and real datasets. Four very different real datasets - Breast Cancer, Coronary Heart Disease, Bankruptcy, and Particle Identification - are analysed, with both continuous and discrete values, and their classification performance compared to the expected theoretical limit. In all cases this analysis shows that the algorithms could not have performed any better due to the underlying probability density functions for the two classes. Important lessons are learnt on how to predict the performance of algorithms for imbalanced data using training datasets that are approximately balanced. Machine learning is very powerful but classification performance ultimately depends on the quality of the data and the relevance of the variables to the problem.