From GEV to ResLogit: Spatially Correlated Discrete Choice Models for Pedestrian Movement Prediction

High frequency pedestrian motion forecasting when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) can be enhanced through the use of behavioural frameworks, such as discrete choice models, that can explicitly account for correlation among similar movement alternatives. We formulate the pedestrian next step choice as a spatial discrete choice defined by a grid of speed adjustment and heading change. Using naturalistic pedestrian-AV encounters from nuScenes and Argoverse 2 (1 sec decision interval), we estimate a multinomial logit baseline and four spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) specifications (SCL, GSCL, SCNL, and GSCNL). We then compare them to a residual neural network logit (ResLogit) model that learns cross alternative effects while retaining an interpretable linear utility component. Across the evaluated data, spatial GEV structures yield only marginal improvements over multinomial logit, whereas ResLogit achieves a substantially better fit and produces behaviourally coherent errors concentrated among neighbouring grid cells. The results suggest that in dense, high frequency spatial choice sets, learning based residual corrections can capture proximity induced correlation more effectively than analyst specified GEV nesting structures, while maintaining interpretability.

Modelling Pedestrian Behaviour in Autonomous Vehicle Encounters Using Naturalistic Dataset

Understanding how pedestrians adjust their movement when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) is essential for improving safety in mixed traffic. This study examines micro-level pedestrian behaviour during midblock encounters in the NuScenes dataset using a hybrid discrete choice-machine learning framework based on the Residual Logit (ResLogit) model. The model incorporates temporal, spatial, kinematic, and perceptual indicators. These include relative speed, visual looming, remaining distance, and directional collision risk proximity (CRP) measures. Results suggest that some of these variables may meaningfully influence movement adjustments, although predictive performance remains moderate. Marginal effects and elasticities indicate strong directional asymmetries in risk perception, with frontal and rear CRP showing opposite influences. The remaining distance exhibits a possible mid-crossing threshold. Relative speed cues appear to have a comparatively less effect. These patterns may reflect multiple behavioural tendencies driven by both risk perception and movement efficiency.