Enhancing Poverty Targeting with Spatial Machine Learning: An application to Indonesia

This study leverages spatial machine learning (SML) to enhance the accuracy of Proxy Means Testing (PMT) for poverty targeting in Indonesia. Conventional PMT methodologies are prone to exclusion and inclusion errors due to their inability to account for spatial dependencies and regional heterogeneity. By integrating spatial contiguity matrices, SML models mitigate these limitations, facilitating a more precise identification and comparison of geographical poverty clusters. Utilizing household survey data from the Social Welfare Integrated Data Survey (DTKS) for the periods 2016 to 2020 and 2016 to 2021, this study examines spatial patterns in income distribution and delineates poverty clusters at both provincial and district levels. Empirical findings indicate that the proposed SML approach reduces exclusion errors from 28% to 20% compared to standard machine learning models, underscoring the critical role of spatial analysis in refining machine learning-based poverty targeting. These results highlight the potential of SML to inform the design of more equitable and effective social protection policies, particularly in geographically diverse contexts. Future research can explore the applicability of spatiotemporal models and assess the generalizability of SML approaches across varying socio-economic settings.

Bayesian algorithmic perfumery: A Hierarchical Relevance Vector Machine for the Estimation of Personalized Fragrance Preferences based on Three Sensory Layers and Jungian Personality Archetypes

This study explores a Bayesian algorithmic approach to personalized fragrance recommendation by integrating hierarchical Relevance Vector Machines (RVM) and Jungian personality archetypes. The paper proposes a structured model that links individual scent preferences for top, middle, and base notes to personality traits derived from Jungian archetypes, such as the Hero, Caregiver, and Explorer, among others. The algorithm utilizes Bayesian updating to dynamically refine predictions as users interact with each fragrance note. This iterative process allows for the personalization of fragrance experiences based on prior data and personality assessments, leading to adaptive and interpretable recommendations. By combining psychological theory with Bayesian machine learning, this approach addresses the complexity of modeling individual preferences while capturing user-specific and population-level trends. The study highlights the potential of hierarchical Bayesian frameworks in creating customized olfactory experiences, informed by psychological and demographic factors, contributing to advancements in personalized product design and machine learning applications in sensory-based industries.

Pre-screening breast cancer with machine learning and deep learning

We suggest that deep learning can be used for pre-screening cancer by analyzing demographic and anthropometric information of patients, as well as biological markers obtained from routine blood samples and relative risks obtained from meta-analysis and international databases. We applied feature selection algorithms to a database of 116 women, including 52 healthy women and 64 women diagnosed with breast cancer, to identify the best pre-screening predictors of cancer. We utilized the best predictors to perform k-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation experiments that compare deep learning against traditional machine learning algorithms. Our results indicate that a deep learning model with an input-layer architecture that is fine-tuned using feature selection can effectively distinguish between patients with and without cancer. Additionally, compared to machine learning, deep learning has the lowest uncertainty in its predictions. These findings suggest that deep learning algorithms applied to cancer pre-screening offer a radiation-free, non-invasive, and affordable complement to screening methods based on imagery. The implementation of deep learning algorithms in cancer pre-screening offer opportunities to identify individuals who may require imaging-based screening, can encourage self-examination, and decrease the psychological externalities associated with false positives in cancer screening. The integration of deep learning algorithms for both screening and pre-screening will ultimately lead to earlier detection of malignancy, reducing the healthcare and societal burden associated to cancer treatment.