Honest and Reliable Evaluation and Expert Equivalence Testing of Automated Neonatal Seizure Detection

Reliable evaluation of machine learning models for neonatal seizure detection is critical for clinical adoption. Current practices often rely on inconsistent and biased metrics, hindering model comparability and interpretability. Expert-level claims about AI performance are frequently made without rigorous validation, raising concerns about their reliability. This study aims to systematically evaluate common performance metrics and propose best practices tailored to the specific challenges of neonatal seizure detection. Using real and synthetic seizure annotations, we assessed standard performance metrics, consensus strategies, and human-expert level equivalence tests under varying class imbalance, inter-rater agreement, and number of raters. Matthews and Pearson's correlation coefficients outperformed the area under the curve in reflecting performance under class imbalance. Consensus types are sensitive to the number of raters and agreement level among them. Among human-expert level equivalence tests, the multi-rater Turing test using Fleiss k best captured expert-level AI performance. We recommend reporting: (1) at least one balanced metric, (2) Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV, (3) Multi-rater Turing test results using Fleiss k, and (4) All the above on held-out validation set. This proposed framework provides an important prerequisite to clinical validation by enabling a thorough and honest appraisal of AI methods for neonatal seizure detection.

Scaling convolutional neural networks achieves expert-level seizure detection in neonatal EEG

Background: Neonatal seizures are a neurological emergency that require urgent treatment. They are hard to diagnose clinically and can go undetected if EEG monitoring is unavailable. EEG interpretation requires specialised expertise which is not widely available. Algorithms to detect EEG seizures can address this limitation but have yet to reach widespread clinical adoption. Methods: Retrospective EEG data from 332 neonates was used to develop and validate a seizure-detection model. The model was trained and tested with a development dataset ($n=202$) that was annotated with over 12k seizure events on a per-channel basis. This dataset was used to develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) using a modern architecture and training methods. The final model was then validated on two independent multi-reviewer datasets ($n=51$ and $n=79$). Results: Increasing dataset and model size improved model performance: Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) and Pearson's correlation ($r$) increased by up to 50% with data scaling and up to 15% with model scaling. Over 50k hours of annotated single-channel EEG was used for training a model with 21 million parameters. State-of-the-art was achieved on an open-access dataset (MCC=0.764, $r=0.824$, and AUC=0.982). The CNN attains expert-level performance on both held-out validation sets, with no significant difference in inter-rater agreement among the experts and among experts and algorithm ($\Delta \kappa < -0.095$, $p>0.05$). Conclusion: With orders of magnitude increases in data and model scale we have produced a new state-of-the-art model for neonatal seizure detection. Expert-level equivalence on completely unseen data, a first in this field, provides a strong indication that the model is ready for further clinical validation.