COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction and Analysis using Self Reported Symptoms

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged scientists and policy-makers internationally to develop novel approaches to public health policy. Furthermore, it has also been observed that the prevalence and spread of COVID-19 vary across different spatial, temporal, and demographics. Despite ramping up testing, we still are not at the required level in most parts of the globe. Therefore, we utilize self-reported symptoms survey data to understand trends in the spread of COVID-19. The aim of this study is to segment populations that are highly susceptible. In order to understand such populations, we perform exploratory data analysis, outbreak prediction, and time-series forecasting using public health and policy datasets. From our studies, we try to predict the likely % of the population that tested positive for COVID-19 based on self-reported symptoms. Our findings reaffirm the predictive value of symptoms, such as anosmia and ageusia. And we forecast that % of the population having COVID-19-like illness (CLI) and those tested positive as 0.15% and 1.14% absolute error respectively. These findings could help aid faster development of the public health policy, particularly in areas with low levels of testing and having a greater reliance on self-reported symptoms. Our analysis sheds light on identifying clinical attributes of interest across different demographics. We also provide insights into the effects of various policy enactments on COVID-19 prevalence.

Proximity Sensing for Contact Tracing

The TC4TL (Too Close For Too Long) challenge is aimed towards designing an effective proximity sensing algorithm that can accurately provide exposure notifications. In this paper, we describe our approach to model sensor and other device-level data to estimate the distance between two phones. We also present our research and data analysis on the TC4TL challenge and discuss various limitations associated with the task, and the dataset used for this purpose.