Minimax Optimal Variance-Aware Regret Bounds for Multinomial Logistic MDPs

We study reinforcement learning for episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) whose transitions are modelled by a multinomial logistic (MNL) model. Existing algorithms for MNL mixture MDPs yield a regret of $\smash{\tilde{O}(dH^2\sqrt{T})}$ (Li et al., 2024), where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ the episode length, and $T$ the number of episodes. Inspired by the logistic bandit literature (Abeille et al., 2021; Faury et al., 2022; Boudart et al., 2026), we introduce a problem-dependent constant $\barσ\_T \leq 1/2$, measuring the normalised average variance of the optimal downstream value function along the learner's trajectory. We propose an algorithm achieving a regret of $\smash{\tilde{O}(dH^2\barσ\_T\sqrt{T})}$, which recovers the existing bound in the worst case and improves upon it for structured MDPs. For instance, for KL-constrained robust MDPs, $\barσ\_T = O(H^{-1})$, reducing the horizon dependence by a factor $H$. We further establish a matching $\smash{Ω(dH^2\barσ\_T\sqrt{T})}$ lower bound, proving minimax optimality (up to logarithmic factors) and fully characterising the regret complexity of MNL mixture MDPs for the first time.

Structured Prediction in Online Learning

We study a theoretical and algorithmic framework for structured prediction in the online learning setting. The problem of structured prediction, i.e. estimating function where the output space lacks a vectorial structure, is well studied in the literature of supervised statistical learning. We show that our algorithm is a generalisation of optimal algorithms from the supervised learning setting, and achieves the same excess risk upper bound also when data are not i.i.d. Moreover, we consider a second algorithm designed especially for non-stationary data distributions, including adversarial data. We bound its stochastic regret in function of the variation of the data distributions.