Designing Explainable Predictive Machine Learning Artifacts: Methodology and Practical Demonstration

Prediction-oriented machine learning is becoming increasingly valuable to organizations, as it may drive applications in crucial business areas. However, decision-makers from companies across various industries are still largely reluctant to employ applications based on modern machine learning algorithms. We ascribe this issue to the widely held view on advanced machine learning algorithms as "black boxes" whose complexity does not allow for uncovering the factors that drive the output of a corresponding system. To contribute to overcome this adoption barrier, we argue that research in information systems should devote more attention to the design of prototypical prediction-oriented machine learning applications (i.e., artifacts) whose predictions can be explained to human decision-makers. However, despite the recent emergence of a variety of tools that facilitate the development of such artifacts, there has so far been little research on their development. We attribute this research gap to the lack of methodological guidance to support the creation of these artifacts. For this reason, we develop a methodology which unifies methodological knowledge from design science research and predictive analytics with state-of-the-art approaches to explainable artificial intelligence. Moreover, we showcase the methodology using the example of price prediction in the sharing economy (i.e., on Airbnb).

Towards a Taxonomy for the Use of Synthetic Data in Advanced Analytics

The proliferation of deep learning techniques led to a wide range of advanced analytics applications in important business areas such as predictive maintenance or product recommendation. However, as the effectiveness of advanced analytics naturally depends on the availability of sufficient data, an organization's ability to exploit the benefits might be restricted by limited data or likewise data access. These challenges could force organizations to spend substantial amounts of money on data, accept constrained analytics capacities, or even turn into a showstopper for analytics projects. Against this backdrop, recent advances in deep learning to generate synthetic data may help to overcome these barriers. Despite its great potential, however, synthetic data are rarely employed. Therefore, we present a taxonomy highlighting the various facets of deploying synthetic data for advanced analytics systems. Furthermore, we identify typical application scenarios for synthetic data to assess the current state of adoption and thereby unveil missed opportunities to pave the way for further research.