Preoperative Prediction of Catheter Ablation Outcome in Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Patients through Spectral Organization Analysis of the Surface Fibrillatory Waves

Catheter ablation (CA) is a commonly used treatment for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Since its medium/long-term success rate remains limited, preoperative prediction of its outcome is gaining clinical interest to optimally select candidates for the procedure. Among predictors based on the surface electrocardiogram, the dominant frequency (DF) and harmonic exponential decay (g) of the fibrillatory waves ( f -waves) have reported promising but clinically insufficient results. Hence, the main goal of this work was to conduct a broader analysis of the f -wave harmonic spectral structure to improve CA outcome prediction through several entropy-based measures computed on different frequency bands. On a database of 151 persistent AF patients under radio-frequency CA and a follow-up of 9 months, the newly introduced parameters discriminated between patients who relapsed to AF and those who maintained SR at about 70%, which was statistically superior to the DF and approximately similar to g. They also provided complementary information to g through different combinations in multivariate models based on lineal discriminant analysis and report classification performance improvement of about 5%. These results suggest that the presence of larger harmonics and a proportionally smaller DF peak is associated with a decreased probability of AF recurrence after CA.

Novel Entropy-Based Metrics for Long-Term Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Prediction Following Surgical Ablation: Insights from Preoperative Electrocardiographic Analysis

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia often treated concomitantly with other cardiac interventions through the Cox Maze procedure. This highly invasive intervention is still linked to a long-term recurrence rate of approximately 35% in permanent AF patients. The aim of this study is to preoperatively predict long-term AF recurrence post-surgery through the analysis of atrial activity (AA) organization from non-invasive electrocardiographic (ECG) recordings. A dataset comprising ECGs from 53 patients with permanent AF who had undergone Cox Maze concomitant surgery was analyzed. The AA was extracted from the lead V1 of these recordings and then characterized using novel predictors, such as the mean and standard deviation of the relative wavelet energy (RWEm and RWEs) across different scales, and an entropy-based metric that computes the stationary wavelet entropy variability (SWEnV). The individual predictors exhibited limited predictive capabilities to anticipate the outcome of the procedure, with the SWEnV yielding a classification accuracy (Acc) of 68.07%. However, the assessment of the RWEs for the seventh scale (RWEs7), which encompassed frequencies associated with the AA, stood out as the most promising individual predictor, with sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) values of 80.83% and 67.09%, respectively, and an Acc of almost 75%. Diverse multivariate decision tree-based models were constructed for prediction, giving priority to simplicity in the interpretation of the forecasting methodology. In fact, the combination of the SWEnV and RWEs7 consistently outperformed the individual predictors and excelled in predicting post-surgery outcomes one year after the Cox Maze procedure, with Se, Sp, and Acc values of approximately 80%, thus surpassing the results of previous studies based on anatomical predictors associated with atrial function or clinical data.