LLMs as Strategic Actors: Behavioral Alignment, Risk Calibration, and Argumentation Framing in Geopolitical Simulations

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as agents in strategic decision environments, yet their behavior in structured geopolitical simulations remains under-researched. We evaluate six popular state-of-the-art LLMs alongside results from human results across four real-world crisis simulation scenarios, requiring models to select predefined actions and justify their decisions across multiple rounds. We compare models to humans in action alignment, risk calibration through chosen actions' severity, and argumentative framing grounded in international relations theory. Results show that models approximate human decision patterns in base simulation rounds but diverge over time, displaying distinct behavioural profiles and strategy updates. LLM explanations for chosen actions across all models exhibit a strong normative-cooperative framing centered on stability, coordination, and risk mitigation, with limited adversarial reasoning.

Online Density-Based Clustering for Real-Time Narrative Evolution Monitorin

Automated narrative intelligence systems for social media monitoring face significant scalability challenges when processing continuous data streams using traditional batch clustering algorithms. We investigate the replacement of HDBSCAN (offline clustering) with online (streaming/incremental) clustering methods in a production narrative report generation pipeline. The proposed system employs a three-stage architecture (data collection, modeling, dashboard generation) that processes thousands of multilingual social media documents daily. While HDBSCAN excels at discovering hierarchical density-based clusters and handling noise, its batch-only nature necessitates complete retraining for each time window, resulting in memory constraints, computational inefficiency, and inability to adapt to evolving narratives in real-time. This work evaluates a bunch of online clustering algorithms across dimensions of cluster quality preservation, computational efficiency, memory footprint, and integration compatibility with existing workflows. We propose evaluation criteria that balance traditional clustering metrics (Silhouette Coefficient, Davies-Bouldin Index) with narrative metrics (narrative distinctness, contingency and variance). Our methodology includes sliding-window simulations on historical datasets from Ukraine information space, enabling comparative analysis of algorithmic trade-offs in realistic operational contexts. This research addresses a critical gap between batch-oriented topic modeling frameworks and the streaming nature of social media monitoring, with implications for computational social science, crisis informatics, and narrative surveillance systems.